Central Division
Chicago Bulls
Record: 36-46
Surprise, the Chicago Bulls are going to be bad. Not Nets/Sixers bad, but the kind of bad you get when you assemble a roster full of ball-stoppers who don’t spread the floor whatsoever.
That’s a kind of bad that isn’t going to get you a top lottery shot. It’s a kind of bad that makes you unpleasant to watch. What makes it worse is that it didn’t have to go this way. Trading Derrick Rose to the New York Knicks should have opened the door for Point Jimmy Butler to run the offense, and the team could gracefully tank and prepare for a rebuild over the next couple seasons.
Instead they decided Rajon Rondo would be a great pickup to run the point. Then they doubled down with a signing that oozes misguided opportunism and picked up Dwyane Wade.
As Dave DuFour and I discussed on his podcast, the signing would have made more sense if the Bulls had signed Wade first, and then not signed Rondo at all.
The Bulls seem to be a team without a chosen direction. The direction they should have chosen should have been a quick trip downwards followed by a rebuild.
Indiana Pacers
Record: 37-45
Speaking of teams whose construction doesn’t make sense, I present the 2016-17 Indiana Pacers. They want to run fast and score, so they fire Frank Vogel and bring in Nate McMillan. How backwards.
Vogel wasn’t an offensive mastermind, but he got the most out of his teams. On the other hand McMillan historically runs some of the slowest offenses in the NBA. He has yet to have a team play at a league-average pace, which speaks to Larry Bird‘s confusing team-building thought process.
The Pacers brought in Al Jefferson via free agency. Jefferson is great, but the 6’10” 289 lbs Big Al is not going to accelerate the speed with which the Pacers play.
Monta Ellis will be 31 when the season begins, and former Detroit Pistons’ guard Rodney Stuckey is already 30. The Pacers traded for Jeff Teague, who is most effective with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, so is Paul George, and George is one of the better players in the NBA. They also picked up Thad Young, who is a four who can’t stretch the floor.
There just isn’t much rhyme or reason to what the Pacers did this offseason. They won 45 games last year, got worse in multiple areas (coach, point guard, multiple players fit with the team’s expected scheme), and the rest of the Eastern Conference got better.
This season is not likely to go as well as most Pacers fans expect.
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 42-40
Finally after discussing the disappointing Bulls and Pacers, we get to talk about the fun teams. First up are the Milwaukee Bucks. The young Bucks have another year under their belts, and one of the most fascinating experiments from a season ago is the running of the offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Point Giannis became the offensive focal point in late February, averaging 18.8 points per game, 8.8 rebounds and 7.5 assists to go with 1.5 steals and 1.9 blocks in 36.4 minutes over the last 26 games of the season.
Antetokounmpo could and did do everything for the Bucks last year once he was unleashed, and there may be no more exciting development than seeing what he can do over the course of a whole season.
Jabari Parker has a full season under his belt, and the Bucks added Matthew Dellavedova via free agency to be a backcourt defensive stopped and three-point sharpshooter.
They also drafted Thon Maker with the tenth overall draft pick. He stands at 7’1″ and weights just 216 lbs, but he is (reputedly) just 19 years old so he has plenty of time to grow into his frame. He also fits the Bucks’ MO of having extremely long athletes as his wingspan is an expansive 7’3″.
Keep an eye on the Bucks. They’ll be fun.
Detroit Pistons
Record: 50-32
Wait, the Detroit Pistons are going to win 50 games? Yes. Yes they are. I have a few basic arguments to back up this assertion.
For starters, the Pistons went 16-9 over their last 25 regular season games, a period of time that coincides with the slotting of Tobias Harris into the starting lineup. That’s a 52.48 win pace over a third of a season.
Over that span, the Pistons had no bench of any worth. Steve Blake ran the second unit, and he was on fumes by that point of the season, averaging 4.4 points and 4 assists in 18.7 minutes per game over the last 25, hitting 37.6 percent from the floor and 31.3 percent from long range.
No one player over that stretch played above their season averages with the exception of a torrid three-point shooting stretch from Marcus Morris. They also struggled more with injuries over that period than at any other period of time. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Anthony Tolliver and Stanley Johnson all missed significant action over the last 25 games.
This offseason the Pistons bolstered their bench, adding a competent point guard in Ish Smith, a stretch-four in Jon Leuer and a literal giant in the 7’3″ 290 lbs Boban Marjanovic. In contrast, the Bulls and Pacers got worse, paving the way slightly for the Pistons.
Long story short, the Pistons are the second best team in the Central Division and the fourth best team in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 59-23
The Cleveland Cavaliers can basically win as many games as they want this year, similar to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference. The Cavs historically coast in the middle of the season to ramp up for the playoffs, and they won’t be concerned with home court advantage. The idea of playing a game seven in Boston or Toronto doesn’t worry them.
The Cavs are well aware that the only thing that can take them down in the East is injury, and they’ll be careful to protect LeBron James and Kyrie Irving from any excess minutes or duress.
The regular season likely won’t be especially exciting for the Cavs, and there will likely be a midseason swoon as they coast. Don’t get carried away by that, they’re sleeping giants simply waiting for the playoffs to wake up.
Next: Ben Wallace's case for the Hall of Fame
The Cavs are the best team in the East, and barring injury they’ll meet the Warriors for the rubber match in the NBA finals in June.