What can simulating 10 seasons of NBA 2K17 tell us about the Pistons?
By Duncan Smith
Las Vegas, ESPN and multiple outlets have weighed in on the Detroit Pistons’ prospects for the 2016-17. Now we check with the ultimate authority, NBA 2K17.
The Detroit Pistons have been evaluated by countless outlets so far this offseason. ESPN, the Westgate SuperBook, Basketball Insiders and others have weighed the Pistons. The general consensus tends to have the Pistons coming away with a win total in the mid-40’s and seeded somewhere in the middle of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.
That’s good and all, and we appreciate the input of these experts. However, today we’re going to call on a higher power, if not the highest power, to judge these Detroit Pistons. That’s right, it’s time to turn to NBA 2K17 for the final analysis on what this team is going to be this year.
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We’re going to run ten simulations of the 2016-17 season, break down interesting and notable things in each season, the Pistons’ record and playoff fate, and then we will go over the Pistons’ total record and best/worst playoff appearances. We’ll also see if there are any overarching themes that we may have not anticipated going into this experiment.
My only ground rules were to reject all trades that the CPU offered (remember, we want to see what THIS team is going to do), and I had the CPU adjust rosters when any injury or other rotation-altering event occurred.
First things first, reading Jake Whitacre’s similar post for Bullets Forever was what pushed me over the edge to do this. However, I value my sanity more than Jake seems to so instead of simulating 50 seasons, I did a mere ten. Go read Jake’s post, it’s excellent.
Give Jake a follow at @jakewhiteacre too. He deserves some kind of reward for what he went through.
Season #1
Record: 42-40
Seed: Third in Central, sixth in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: The Pistons beat the Toronto Raptors in seven games in the first round, then beat the Chicago Bulls in the second round, and then were unceremoniusly swept from the playoffs by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the conference finals.
Injuries were a theme with the Pistons this season. Reggie Jackson missed eight games, Andre Drummond missed 11 games and Tobias Harris missed 24 games.
When the starters were healthy, the Pistons were almost unstoppable. The injuries to the starters overlapped though, and that torpedoed a promising regular season.
Standouts: Andre Drummond averages 18.8 points and 13.5 rebounds. Free throw watch: 28.8 percent.
Season #2
Record: 34-48
Seed: Missed playoffs.
We can’t even blame injuries for this disaster. No starter played fewer than Drummond’s 77 games. We’ll pretend this season didn’t happen and never speak of it again.
Standouts: Andre Drummond averages 18.4 points and 13.1 rebounds per game. Free throw watch: 32.9 percent.
Season #3
Record: 44-38
Seed: Second in Central, fourth in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: The Pistons lose in seven games to the Orlando Magic.
Once again injuries played a role in this season as Tobias Harris missed 24 games once again. Andre Drummond is named second team All-NBA and second team All-Defense.
Standouts: Reggie Jackson averages 20.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Andre Drummond averaged 19 points and 13.7 rebounds. Free throw watch: 37.2 percent.
Season #4
Record: 48-34
Seed: Second in Central, second in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: The Pistons sweep the New York Knicks in the first round and push the third seed Cavs to six games.
We will forever wonder what might have been after this season. In the second to last game of the season, Reggie Jackson tore his hamstring and was ruled out for the rest of the season. This required Ish Smith to start at point guard throughout the playoffs. It’s also worth noting that the Pistons started the season 12-20 before putting it all together.
Andre Drummond is named second team All-NBA.
Standouts: Andre Drummond averages 18.3 points and 13.1 rebounds per game. Free throw watch: 38.9 percent
Season #5
Record: 53-29
Seed: First in Central, first in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: Beat the New York Knicks in seven games in the first round, beat the Chicago Bulls in seven games in the second round, swept by Cavs in the conference finals.
Once again the Cavs end a promising season for the Detroit Pistons. Reggie Jackson missed 20 games in the regular season, forcing Ish Smith to step into the starter’s role. Smith averaged four points and seven assists per game in Jackson’s absence.
Andre Drummond is named second team All-NBA and second team All-Defense.
Standouts: Andre Drummond averages 20.2 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. Free throw watch: 33.6 percent.
Season #6:
Record: 43-39
Seed: Third in Central, fifth in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: Beat the Chicago Bulls in six games, swept by the Cavs in second round.
Two trends are emerging. The Cavaliers love playing the Pistons in the playoffs, and Tobias Harris can’t avoid knee tendinitis. Once again, he missed 26 games due to that injury.
Another trend: Andre Drummond is again named second team All-NBA and second team All-Defense.
Standouts: Andre Drummond averages 18.7 points and 14.6 rebounds per game. Free throw watch: 37.5 percent.
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Season #7
Record: 45-37
Seed: Third in Central, fourth in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: Lost in five games to the Washington Wizards.
This season was Reggie Jackson’s season. He put up spectacular numbers en route to a third team All-NBA berth. He was needed, as Drummond missed 12 games and Tobias Harris missed another 26 games due to knee tendinitis.
Standouts: Reggie Jackson averaged 21.5 points and 9.4 assist per game, shooting 44.2 percent from the floor and 39 percent from three-point range. Andre Drummond averaged 19.5 points and 12.8 rebounds. Free throw watch: 38 percent.
Season #8
Record: 47-35
Seed: Second in Central, fourth in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: Lost in five games to the Chicago Bulls.
Reggie Jackson had to bring it again this season to make up for an injury-riddled campaign from Andre Drummond and Tobias Harris. Drummond missed 34 games and Harris missed 20 games, once again due to knee tendinitis.
Standouts: Reggie Jackson averaged 29.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Andre Drummond averaged 19.7 points and 13.9 rebounds. Free throw watch: 25.5 percent.
Season #9
Record: 43-39
Seed: Fourth in the Central, sixth in the Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: Swept by the Toronto Raptors.
This was a disappointing season based on today’s expectation for this team. No Piston starter missed games, but they won one game less than they did in 2015-16. They also got blasted in the first round of the playoffs.
Standouts: Reggie Jackson averages 19.3 points and 9.1 rebounds. Andre Drummond averages 17.4 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. Free throw watch: 33.6 percent.
Season #10
Record: 47-35
Seed: Second in Central, second in Eastern Conference.
Playoffs: Swept by the Atlanta Hawks.
Once again the Pistons meet an ignominious end in the first round of the playoffs. This time the Hawks do the deed. Andre Drummond is named All-NBA third team and second team All-Defense.
Standouts: Andre Drummond averages 18.7 points and 13.7 rebounds per game. Free throw watch: 36.9 percent.
In summary
Overall, the Pistons showed the slightest of improvement on last season. They averaged 44.6 wins per season, up .6 wins from last season. They missed the playoffs only once, which was also their worst regular season win total at 34.
They bowed out in the first round five times, including the final four seasons I simulated. They went out in the second round twice and the conference finals twice. The Cleveland Cavaliers were the Pistons’ nemesis, sending them home four times and sweeping them three times.
Andre Drummond won All-NBA honors seven times, being named second team four times, third team three times, and was named to an All-Defense team four times.
Next: Analyzing the Pistons' roster from a S.W.O.T. perspective
Also of note, Tobias Harris missed 20 or more games five times. In every season, whether he missed time or not, the CPU changed the rotation and moved him to the bench and started Jon Leuer at power forward for more than half the season. Additionally, the CPU opted to start Stanley Johnson for 20 or more games every season, including seasons where Marcus Morris missed no time.