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FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo projections weigh in on the Pistons

By Duncan Smith

Oct 19, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) attempts a shot against Toronto Raptors center Lucas Nogueira (92) and guard Norman Powell (24) during the fourth quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Raptors won 103-92. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 19, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) attempts a shot against Toronto Raptors center Lucas Nogueira (92) and guard Norman Powell (24) during the fourth quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Raptors won 103-92. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports /
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Thus far during the offseason, people have been the predominant judges of the Detroit Pistons. However, now it’s time for the machines to offer a verdict.

Previews, forecasts and projections for the Detroit Pistons and the rest of the NBA have been coming in fast and heavy in recent weeks. Just Thursday morning FanSided offered their assessment of the Pistons and a preview of what is to come in 2016-17.

The one thing that all of the prognosticators and previewers had in common thus far: They’re all humans.

Related Story: Should the Pistons try to trade for LaMarcus Aldridge?

Most recently, the machines have weighed in. That’s right, FiveThirtyEight’s computers have run their simulations and found the Pistons to be wanting.

A quick background on the simulation from FiveThirtyEight’s predictions page:

"How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for team fatigue, travel distance to games, and home courts with higher altitudes. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Our CARM-Elo ratings, which power the forecast model, blend these two metrics to measure a team’s quality based on both its game results and its roster."

If you would like a deeper understanding of how CARM-Elo works, check out their link which outlines the methodology in detail.

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There are a few surprises in these projections. Not the least of which, CARM-Elo has the Pistons winning just 39 games.

Mind you, this projection factors in everything. Reggie Jackson‘s knee tendinitis, Aron Baynes‘ absence due to a broken nose, Stanley Johnson‘s poor preseason showing due to foot pain and Marcus Morris‘ multiple injuries are all likely factored into the simulations.

However, all hope is not lost. In spite of the Pistons’ 39 wins, CARM-Elo projects them with the sixth-best record in the Eastern Conference and their 57 percent chance of making the playoffs is the best of five teams in the east with between 46 and 57 percent chance to get into the postseason.

Other noteworthy projections, the Chicago Bulls are projected to have a 45-37 record (seriously!), the Indiana Pacers are projected to have a 37-45 record, and the New York Knicks are projected to have a 35-47 record.

Next: Spencer Dinwiddie is thriving with the Chicago Bulls

While by no means is this a full and accurate representation of what CARM-Elo expects the NBA to look like at the end of the season, it’s worth checking in regularly and seeing how things change on a nightly basis. CARM-Elo updates after every game, all season.

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