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Why the Detroit Pistons may not let Aron Baynes go easily

By Duncan Smith

Dec 6, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons center Aron Baynes (12) defends against Chicago Bulls forward Jimmy Butler (21) in the second half at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons won 102-91.Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 6, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons center Aron Baynes (12) defends against Chicago Bulls forward Jimmy Butler (21) in the second half at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons won 102-91.Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aron Baynes has been an unsung hero for the Detroit Pistons so far this season. The team may not let him go this offseason as easily as once believed.

The Detroit Pistons entered this past offseason preparing to move on from Aron Baynes next summer. Baynes has a player option at the end of the season, which he’s likely to exercise in order to capitalize on the big salary cap boom in 2017-18.

It’s long been believed that the Pistons won’t be willing to spend the money it would take to resign him, considering the fact that once Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s contract is dealt with, any additional money spent will put them over the punitive luxury tax threshold.

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There are players you gladly go deep into the luxury tax for, and some you don’t. Conventional knowledge dictates that Aron Baynes is not a player you pay that tax for.

Or is he?

The Pistons prepared for the future, signing Boban Marjanovic to a three-year $21 million contract, effectively installing him as the future backup center. But Marjanovic has barely been able to get off the bench, appearing in just nine games and playing a total of 46 minutes. His role has been that of a virtual victory cigar, brought in at the end of blowouts.

Baynes’ traditional counting stats have been pedestrian, averaging just 4.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, hitting just 43.1 percent of his shots.

Those numbers don’t tell the whole story for Aron Baynes this season.

The Pistons’ defense hits another level when he’s on the floor. He has the best defensive rating of any regular player on the team at 95.2, and he appears in seven different lineup combinations that have defensive ratings between 75.7 and 95.4.

He’s not just the beneficiary of other players’ defensive performances. Baynes is holding opponents to 6.3 percent worse than their season averages, second best on the team to only Darrun Hilliard.

Even more impressively, he’s holding opponents to 17.7 percent worse than their season average from within six feet of the basket. That rate is second-best in the NBA among all players who have appeared in 20 or more games. When we expand the range out to ten feet or less, opponents are shooting 10.4 percent worse than their averages when Baynes is the defender.

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The fact that the Pistons effectively moved on from Baynes this past summer may not be the final verdict on his time in Detroit. Stan Van Gundy and Detroit Pistons’ owner Tom Gores have indicated they have no problem spending big money to keep the team’s core together, and against all odds it looks like Aron Baynes is a vital part of this core.

He’s expected to opt out of his $6.5 million salary for next season, meaning he could command somewhere in the $9-10 million range if things continue to go well for him this season. Should the Pistons spend what it takes to bring him back if he opts out?

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