Andre Drummond is on the verge of a career year for the Detroit Pistons
By Duncan Smith
Andre Drummond has struggled at times this early season, to the point where some asked what was wrong. The answer? Nothing is wrong with Andre Drummond.
At times in this young season, Andre Drummond has appeared disengaged and lethargic. It’s led some to be concerned that the Detroit Pistons made a big mistake in pinning their future, their hopes and dreams on the 23-year-old big man.
Those concerns are understandable, but they’re also unfounded.
Andre Drummond has had some rough moments this season. He was benched in the second half of a road loss to the Brooklyn Nets, he was ejected in the second quarter of a big win over the Charlotte Hornets for elbowing Roy Hibbert in the back of the head. These aren’t shining moments, but in view of the whole picture that Drummond presents, they’re acceptable ills from a young star growing in maturity before our eyes.
Drummond’s 2015-16 season was his best year to date, and after a sluggish start to the season it looked like maybe it was his zenith. After all, if now he’s regressing or at least not developing, maybe we’d already seen the best he had to offer.
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It turns out that his 2016-17 campaign is knocking on the door for that career year, and he may be poised to blow clear past it.
In 2015-16, Drummond averaged 16.2 points and a league-leading 14.8 rebounds per game. He added 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. This season at a glance, everything has taken a small step back. He’s averaging 14.7 points and 13.3 rebounds per game, adding 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks.
What goes unnoticed at that cursory look is the reduced minutes Drummond has played. In 2015-16 he was on the floor for a career-high 32.9 minutes per game while this season he’s down to 29.7, which would be a low for him since the 20.7 minutes per game he played as a rookie.
There are a variety of reasons for the reduced minutes. He missed a chunk of the opening game of the season against the Toronto Raptors after taking a Jonas Valanciunas elbow to the face, he played 25 minutes in the game against the Nets where he was benched, and he played just 13 minutes in the game against the Hornets where he was ejected.
There’s also the fact that a lot of Pistons’ games so far have been lopsided one way or another, and there’s just no reason to leave starters in the game. In fact, all five starters have had reduced minutes this season. Stan Van Gundy said on Tuesday that he’s made no concerted effort to reduce minutes, it’s just the way things have broken down.
So considering the reduction in minutes, the best metrics to compare this season to last season are per-36 and per 100 possessions.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2016.
As we can see, Andre Drummond is posting career highs in every counting stat other than offensive rebounding and total rebounds, whereas everything else is roughly equal at worst, and his efficiency (field goal percentage and free throw percentage) are markedly better.
In fact, his effective field goal percentage (53.6 percent) and true shooting percentage (53.3 percent) are both their highest rates since his second season as a low usage complement to Josh Smith and Greg Monroe.
Drummond’s per 100 numbers are where he truly shines.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2016.
The disparity between last season and this is considerably more distinct when we break it down to per 100.
What makes all of this that much more impressive is that he’s done this without his partner in crime Reggie Jackson. The duo comprised one of the most devastating pick and roll combos in the NBA last season, and Drummond has not been able to get going on that go-to play with Ish Smith.
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While Drummond has been able to be effective as the roll man so far, scoring 1.22 points per possession, Smith’s results as the pick and roll ball handler have been unimpressive, producing just .744 points per possession. As Jackson gets back into the swing of things and shakes the rust off, look for that deadly connection to get back on track.
Another area Drummond has improved this season is as a transition finisher. Last season he scored just 1 point per possession in transition, which is poor production to say the least and found him in the 27th percentile.
While halfcourt offense across the league produces about 0.9 points per possession, what often separates good offenses from mediocre or bad offenses is transition opportunities and conversions. 1 point per transition possession is not productive. This season he’s considerably more efficient in transition, scoring an impressive 1.417 points per possession, placing him in the 90th percentile.
This transition offense has been largely thanks to an improved Piston defense. Transition opportunities almost always come from defensive stops, whether it be missed shots or turnovers, and the Pistons’ fourth-ranked defense has been excellent at turning the ball around.
While Drummond has never been considered a good defender, he’s been a significant beneficiary of the Pistons’ lockdown defense. So much so, in fact, that he’s the NBA leader in defensive win shares with 1.8 (formula found here)and an impressive defensive box plus minus of 4.1 (formula found here).
Bear in mind that Drummond is the beneficiary of this defense, not a catalyst. None of his advanced defensive metrics show any improvement year-over-year, but when the Pistons can stop the ball and go back the other way on the fast break, Drummond converts virtually every time.
Next: Why the Pistons may not let Aron Baynes go easily
At 23 years old, Andre Drummond may yet have more potential to develop than we thought even a month ago. Without a doubt, the story on the supremely talented young big man is far from written.