Detroit Pistons remaining schedule more challenging than meets the eye

The Detroit Pistons have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the Eastern Conference, but seven back-to-back sets loom, and the Pistons have been horrible on zero days rest so far this season.

We are through the All-Star break, and the Detroit Pistons, who continue play tonight at home vs. Charlotte, are a disappointing 27-30 and in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. However, according to some metrics, Detroit has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NBA.

Playoffstatus.com has the Pistons post-All-Star schedule as the easiest remaining in the East. And, as Keith Langlois recently pointed out, leading playoff projection models give Detroit at least a 68 percent chance of returning to the postseason.

But, upon closer examination of their remaining schedule, the Pistons may be facing more of an uphill climb than meets the eye.

Detroit has 25 games remaining. 13 of those games come against opponents with a worse record, 12 against teams with a better one (although two of those are against Chicago, who is just one game ahead of Detroit).

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Also, the schedule features 13 home games compared to 12 away games. Hidden in that apparent (albeit slight) advantage is the fact that eight of the Pistons’ final 12 games are on the road, including a four-game road trip in late March. However, that does give them a chance to capitalize early on post-All-Star break, when nine of their first 13 games are at the Palace.

If the Pistons keep up the momentum created before the break, where they won six of their last nine games, they can practically decide their postseason fate in those first 13 games post-break.

And they need to make something happen right then and there. Because of the 25 games remaining, 14 are part of a back-to-back set, including one stretch of four games in five nights. Meaning, seven of Detroit’s final 25 games come on the second night of a back-to-back, and the Pistons have been terrible on zero days rest.

Second leg of back-to-back set:

11/2: Loss, 101-109 @ Brooklyn
11/12: Win, 106-95 @ Denver
11/19: Loss, 92-94 vs. Boston
11/26: Loss, 88-106 @ Oklahoma City
11/30: Win, 121-114 @ Boston
12/7: Loss, 77-87 @ Charlotte
12/17: Loss, 90-105 vs. Indiana
1/13: Loss, 77-110 @ Utah
2/04: Loss, 84-105 @ Indiana
2/13: Loss, 89-102 @ Milwaukee

As you can see, the Detroit Pistons are 2-8 on the second night of a back-to-back. It’s not surprising, given that eight of those ten were played on the road and that, well, most teams stink on the second night of back-to-backs. Even Cleveland is 3-7 on zero days rest.

But the graver concern is how ugly the numbers have been.

On the second night of a back-to-back, Detroit scores 98.1 points per 100 possessions – a sharp departure from their mark of 103.7 on the season as a whole. Furthermore, the Pistons shoot .438 percent from the field and .294 from three on zero days rest, which is way down from their season-long figures of .455 and .335 percent, respectively.

At the same time, the defense takes a dip as well. On the season overall, Detroit gives up 104.2 points per 100 possessions. On the second night of a back-to-back, that number climbs to 109.0 points, giving them a net rating rating of -10.1 on zero days rest, per stats.nba.com.

These numbers don’t bode well for the following seven games:

3/01 @ New Orleans
3/09 vs. Cleveland
3/15 vs. Utah
3/22 @ Chicago
3/28 vs. Miami
3/31 @ Milwaukee
4/10 vs. Washington

If they keep their current pace, Detroit will only win one or two of these games. That leaves little margin for error in the other 18 games — think of it as if the Pistons were 28-36 or 29-35 with 17 games remaining.

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The playoff projections may see their path as favorable, but with the road-heavy end of the season and back-to-backs looming, the Pistons have their work cut out for them if they want to earn a second-straight trip to the postseason.