A deeper look at the Pistons point guard conundrum

The Detroit Pistons have had a major issue at point guard for most of the season, and as the stretch run nears the disparity is becoming more critical.

This season hasn’t gone as expected for the Detroit Pistons. The signing of Ish Smith in the early hours of July 1st was appreciated as an upgrade over Steve Blake at backup point guard, but it wasn’t seen as much more. Obviously the Pistons would ride Reggie Jackson, fresh off a season in which he was just on the outside looking in at an All-Star bid, and the Pistons would be a relevant and growing force in the Eastern Conference.

None of that has played out as expected. Reggie Jackson has been mostly dreadful since his early December return from knee tendinitis and Ish Smith has had periods of mediocrity, but over the course of the last month he’s been tremendous and the Pistons around him on the floor have flourished.

Since January 15th, when Ish is on the floor, the Pistons are outscoring opponents 116.7 to 103.6 per 100 possessions. +13.1 net rating.
— Duncan Smith (@DuncanSmithNBA) February 26, 2017

Considering how dreadful the Pistons have been with Jackson in the lineup, it might be reasonable to ask if it’s less a matter of what Ish Smith brings to the table than that the Pistons core is actually better than people think.

Since 1/15, the trio of RJ/Harris/Morris has a -6.7 net rating. Remember, Ish/Harris/Morris have a +27.2 net rating. That's a 33.9 pt swing.
— Duncan Smith (@DuncanSmithNBA) February 26, 2017

With Reggie Jackson, the Pistons have been among the worst performing teams in the NBA, particularly for the past month and a half. They have a -5.3 net rating with Jackson on the floor since January 15th (the road game against the Los Angeles Lakers), which would place them 24th in the NBA in net rating. However with Ish Smith on the floor and Reggie Jackson off and no other variable, this same team has a net rating of +13.1.

Only the Golden State Warriors have a better net rating over that span.

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It’s overly simplistic to suggest that Ish Smith is responsible for a net rating gap equal to that separating the best team in the NBA from the 24th best team (and also the most ridiculous sentence I’ve ever written by far), but Reggie Jackson may have as much or more to do with that. The defense is atrocious with him on the floor, the ball movement stagnates. The Pistons don’t get out in transition when Jackson quarterbacks the offense and easy baskets and supplementary scoring from the fast break and free throws are nonexistent.

On the flip side, Ish Smith (noted marksman) has been shooting unsustainably well over the last seven weeks. He’s hitting 52.9 percent from the floor (he’s a career 40.8 percent shooter) and has an effective field goal percentage of 54.2 percent (his career eFG is 43 percent and just 45.6 percent on the season). Naturally the point guard’s hot shooting is going to play a role in the team’s enhanced performance, but he’s only taking 7.4 shots per game over that span and defenses haven’t decided to buy in to his hot shooting and still go under the screen on the pick and roll.

More likely: Ish Smith’s facilitating has unleashed an improving young core learning to play together through challenges stemming from a lack of continuity. Remember, this core was only fully assembled a year ago when Tobias Harris was acquired. Since then they’ve battled through Reggie Jackson’s injury and often catastrophic play after his return, the integration and subsequent injury of Jon Leuer, an injury to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

There’s no question that Jackson is having a damaging impact on the floor, but it may be hasty to move Smith into the starting lineup. While part of Smith’s impact has simply been a matter of getting the offense flowing and putting his guys in good spots, it’s also a fact that some of his performance has been due to feasting on second units. If Smith starts, he won’t be playing with a big advantage over his counterpart. To take that a step further, if Jackson is coming off the bench, you won’t find many second units he can take advantage of in any way right now.

The Pistons are in a strange quandary in that Smith really needs to be the second-unit quarterback, but they need their starters (Jackson and Andre Drummond in particular) to hand the ball off to them without doing catastrophic damage and leaving deficits the bench brigade can’t overcome. Fortunately, the Pistons were able to overcome big deficits twice in the past few weeks against the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors, but that’s not a recipe for success.

Next: Who is the Detroit Pistons' franchise centerpiece?

Pistons fans live in interesting times. For most of the season, not much has made sense about this team. More so now, very little about the Detroit Pistons could be considered logical. Because these are the strangest of times for the Detroit Pistons, the one thing they seem to be able to count upon right now is giving the ball to Ish Smith and watching him run.