It’s time for the Pistons to start tanking

While Stan Van Gundy and the Detroit Pistons organization holds out hope for the playoffs, there remains no realistic chance at making the postseason. It’s time for the Pistons to tank.

Mathematical elimination can be a double-edged sword for teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Some, like the Detroit Pistons, can have the thinnest of hopes, but refuse to give up on what’s left of those dreams. In some cases, also like that of the Pistons, refusing to shift priorities in the waning days of the season can have damaging long-term effects.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Pistons have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs. They currently sit alone in 11th in the Eastern Conference, two games behind the eighth-place Miami Heat with the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Hornets ahead of them. There are just five games left, and the Pistons don’t hold the tiebreaker against either the Pacers or Heat. In effect, the Pistons are three games behind the Heat, as a tie in the standings would give Miami the eight seed.

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With this in mind, it would take a spectacular collapse from the Heat and equal disasters on the parts of the Pacers and the Hornets along with an uncharacteristic surge from the Pistons. In contrast, there are lessons to be learned and goals left to accomplish if the Pistons opt to stop trying to actively win games. The Pistons have the 11th-worst record in the NBA, two games ahead of the 10th-place New Orleans Pelicans and two-and-a-half games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks in ninth.

If the Pistons were able to tank down to 10th, they would have an 87% chance to get the 10th pick, and their odds to get a top-three pick would go from their current 2.9% up to 4%. If they were able to tank down to ninth, they would have an 81.3% shot at the ninth pick and a 6.1% shot at a top-three pick. In a lost season, those small edges matter and foregoing a sub-one percent shot at the playoffs is a price worth paying to anybody with a grasp on reality.

Unfortunately, Stan Van Gundy’s policy is to actively try to win games until they’re mathematically eliminated.

According to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press:

"“We’ll see,” he said Friday morning. “Right now, we’re playing to try to win and stay in this with whatever small shot we have. Until then, there’s no thought of looking at things for next year.Right now, we’re doing whatever we think is best to try to get the win. That’s all we’re trying to do.”"

This sounds great in theory, but it’s problematic in practice. The Pistons will keep banging their heads against the wall with this Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Jon Leuer and Andre Drummond starting lineup and its 46.6 offensive rating (NOT a typo) since Smith replaced Jackson in the first unit (and offensive rating of 85.5 over the course of the season). The rookies will continue to stagnate on the bench or play in Grand Rapids. Stanley Johnson will languish. Tobias Harris will battle Jon Leuer for playing time.

Unfortunately, the surest way for the Pistons to lose out the rest of the season is to roll with that starting five. Also unfortunate, it will be an accidental tank that won’t utilize any of the benefits that come with not being required to win. The Pistons could play the rookies and see what they’ve got. They can unleash Stanley Johnson and see what he can do without the threat of an immediate and extended hook at the sight of an error. They could force-feed Tobias Harris and see if he can be the number one option this roster as currently constructed desperately needs him to be next season.

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Or they can do none of these things, still lose, learn nothing, and look foolish in the process as they prepare to depart the arena in which they won three championships. Sad to say, Stan Van Gundy has made his choice.