Pistons’ Struggle with Mediocrity Makes for Crucial Offseason
By Andrew Hejka
The Detroit Pistons’ lack of a superstar creates problems for them. Can the current roster be transformed into a contender, or is a rebuild coming?
More than any other professional sports league, the NBA does not favor middle-of-the-road teams like the Detroit Pistons. Therefore, it is imperative that teams who are not contenders have a rebuilding plan in place.
Looking at past NBA champions, it is virtually impossible to contend, let alone win an NBA title, without a superstar. Obviously, the 2004 Pistons are an exception to the rule.
A distinction that is less widely known is the difference in talent between the beginning and end of the lottery of the NBA Draft. While there is typically plenty of talent in the top five of a given draft, there is evidence to prove how quickly the value of picks change. 82games.com uses a rating system calculated by the following formula.
"Rating = points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game"
This method helps to depict the production of players in a simplified way. A chart from 82games.com shows that the average career rating of a top-5 pick is 23.1, the average rating of a pick in the 6-10 range is 16.6, and the average rating of an 11-14 pick is only 13.2. 82games.com provides some analysis.
"The 6-10 range show about 1/3 of the picks reaching star status, but lots of role players as well.The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars."
Clearly, it is difficult to consistently find talent outside of the top 5. While there have been superstars fall outside of the top 10, such as Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, and Joe Dumars, they have been few and far between.
So, what does all of this mean for the Pistons, as they will most likely hold the No. 12 pick in June?
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First off, the Pistons have only had two top-five draft picks since 1982. It is becoming clear that having five picks in the 6-10 range since 2010 have limited their talent, especially given the All-Stars at the top of most of those drafts, and while the top of the draft this year is extremely talented, there seems to be a drop-off after the top 10.
There are plenty of question marks on the current roster as well, starting with the point guard position. Will Reggie Jackson recover from this past year? Can Ish Smith develop a consistent jumper as a soon-to-be 29-year-old? Will 18-year-old potential draft pick Frank Ntilikina solve the point guard situation?
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The stretch four is also a major question mark. Henry Ellenson has a chance to be Stan Van Gundy’s guy if he can further develop in the offseason, but Mike Muscala and Derrick Williams are two free agents to keep an eye on.
Also, Boban Marjanovic has shown offensive potential, but will need to make strides defensively to take on the lost minutes from Aron Baynes‘ probable departure.
The Pistons have talent; however, they lack a superstar. Andre Drummond has the potential, but shaky free-throw shooting, an unreliable post game, and inconsistent effort on defense limit his ceiling.
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Combine that with the fact that the average No. 12 pick is a role player at best, and that the Pistons don’t have enough cap space to make a major splash in free agency assuming Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remains in Detroit, and one has to wonder if a full rebuild is coming in the future.