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A brief history of the NBA lottery’s 12th spot

By Duncan Smith

Apr 10, 2017; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; A general view of the entrance at The Palace of Auburn Hills before the game between the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2017; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; A general view of the entrance at The Palace of Auburn Hills before the game between the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /
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There hasn’t been much variance from the 12th spot in the NBA’s lottery since it expanded from 11 teams to 13 in 1995. Let’s take a look back.

Amid all the conspiracy theories surrounding the NBA’s lottery over the years, there hasn’t been much room for shadiness and extracurricular speculation when it comes to the 12th lottery spot. This season the Detroit Pistons will sit in that 12th spot, and as the odds suggest they are heavy favorites to stay in that very spot.

The Pistons have a 93.5 percent chance to hold at 12, have a 3.9 percent chance to drop to 13th, and the only other possibilities are 0.7 percent for first, 0.8 percent for second, and 1 percent for third. There are no other draft spots they can land.

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Since the lottery expanded from 11 teams to 13 back in 1995, the 12th lottery spot has ended up getting the 12th draft pick every year but one. That year was 1999, when the Seattle Supersonics dropped from the 12th lottery spot and ended up with the 13th pick. They selected former Piston Corey Maggette, a player who had a 14-year career and averaged 16 points per game when all was said and done.

Incidentally, the team in the 13th spot that year was the Charlotte Hornets. They jumped from that lottery spot up to the third overall draft pick, where they selected Baron Davis.

The players selected by teams in the 12th lottery spot are a mixed bag, as you might imagine from the middle of the first round. Strangely enough, Maggette (selected 13th) had the best career of any of those players by a fairly wide margin. Thaddeus Young is the only candidate for second best, having logged 739 games with a 13.6 points per game average.

Only five of the 21 players selected by teams in this spot have career scoring averages over 10 points per game, including Dario Saric of the Philadelphia 76ers. Saric might one day be the best player to come from this group.

A number of players selected here have had long NBA careers, if not careers laden with All-Star appearances. Of the 21 players picked, 10 have played 500 games or more, and Alec Burks, Steven Adams, Dario Saric, Jeremy Lamb, Trey Lyles and Taurean Prince could all have long careers as well.

Historically speaking, the Pistons are likely to get a serviceable player with NBA ability in a strong draft like this one.

Related Story: Who the Pistons have met with at the combine

The lottery will be held at 8:30 p.m. EST on Tuesday, May 16th. You can watch on ESPN.

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