What if the Pistons don’t re-sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?

It’s been expected since before the season began that the Detroit Pistons would do what it took to retain Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but what if they didn’t?

It’s been a foregone conclusion since before the 2016-17 regular season began that the Detroit Pistons were invested in re-signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this summer, perhaps regardless of the cost. There are a number of reasons for this: the structure of restricted free agency, cap minutiae, owner Tom Gores and coach and president Stan Van Gundy love him, and most importantly he’s both young and good at an important role that is difficult to adequately fill in the modern NBA.

These reasons have been discussed ad nauseam on the pages of this website and others to the point where it’s simply regarded as common knowledge that the Pistons are going to do what they need to in order to keep him.

But let’s take a trip to an alternate universe. One in which the Detroit Pistons decide that his late season swoon was too much to stomach. After January 13th KCP hit 36.8 percent from the floor and 29.7 percent from three and had a defensive rating of 110.5, worse than Reggie Jackson‘s by a point and a half. In this universe we’ll say the Brooklyn Nets offered him the max, a four-year contract worth $103 million, and the Pistons decided not to match.

For this exercise, we’ll also assume that Aron Baynes opted out of his $6.5 million player option and that the Pistons have no financial obligation to him. This means that the Pistons would have $100,577,000 on the books for this season, counting guaranteed contracts, unguaranteed contracts, dead money (including Josh Smith‘s $5.4 million owed this season and each of the next two seasons) and the $2.8 million contract the 12th pick in this year’s draft will make on the rookie scale.

With a salary cap expected to come out to $101 million this season and a luxury tax threshold expected to come out at $121 million, the Pistons are no longer in danger of hitting the tax (which re-signing KCP would have made likely), but they don’t have enough cap space in order to add any player they wouldn’t have otherwise been able to add even if they had re-signed KCP.

More from PistonPowered

With less than $1 million in space, they’re still stuck using either the mid-level exception (worth up to $8.4 million, but comes with future restrictions if they use it) or the mini-mid level exception (worth up to $4.2 million, but fewer restrictions). They can also add players for the veteran minimum to their heart’s content, but they could have done all of these things if they retained KCP as well.

In order to open up some more cap space, the Pistons have to make some tough decisions. For starters, Darrun Hilliard has a non-guaranteed $1.471 million coming in 2017-18. If the Pistons waive him before the end of July 1st, they owe him nothing. Michael Gbinije has a partially guaranteed $1.3 million contract, and if the Pistons waive him before July 15th they’ll owe him only $500,000.

If the Pistons waive both players, they’ll save $2.2 million, and they’ll have about $98.3 million on the books. The problem here is that they’re only $2.7 million under the cap, and they’ll have just 10 players under contract including whoever the 12th overall draft pick is.

On this roster, only Stanley Johnson has experience at the shooting guard position. While he might not start, it’s almost certain that whoever does start would either be a rookie (like Donovan Mitchell) or somebody signed with either the mid-level or mini mid-level exception. C.J. Miles (who is 30 and has never played more than 25 minutes per game in a season) is likely the best player the Detroit Pistons would be able to get their hands on under these conditions.

Next: Breaking down the Pistons salary cap situation

What do you think? Is this a good starting point to rebuild the Pistons roster, or is this frugality and prudence for its own sake?