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ESPN projects the Pistons in the playoffs with one little catch

By Duncan Smith

AUBURN HILLS, MI - APRIL 24: A general view before Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons during the 2016 NBA Playoffs on April 24, 2016 at The Palace of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Allen Einstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
AUBURN HILLS, MI - APRIL 24: A general view before Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons during the 2016 NBA Playoffs on April 24, 2016 at The Palace of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Allen Einstein/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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ESPN projects the Detroit Pistons in the playoffs next season, but with the caveat that they are among the worst playoff teams in history.

We have good news, and we have some bad news. My preference is always to take the bad news first so I can diminish the pain with good news, but we’ll do it backwards here. The good news is that ESPN’s Kevin Pelton and the SCHOENE projection system predicts the Detroit Pistons will make the playoffs this season, albeit as an eight-seed.

The bad news is that they’ll do it with 35 wins, two fewer than they did last year in a tremendously disappointing and injury-riddled season. This would make them the 16th-worst playoff team in NBA history, measured by their .426 winning percentage. In spite of upgrading in top-end talent and addressing weaknesses such as shooting and veteran leadership, the Pistons are projected to take a step further back in an Eastern Conference which literally took all its good players and sent them to the Western Conference.

Per Pelton:

"There’s a huge drop-off in RPM projections from the top seven teams in the East to the rest of the conference, which could keep several teams in the playoff mix. Detroit leads that pack despite being projected for two fewer wins than in 2016-17. Trading Marcus Morris for Avery Bradley and losing Caldwell-Pope in free agency have left the Pistons with less starting-caliber talent."

Admittedly, I might be a bit higher than many on the Detroit Pistons’ upgrades this summer, but this does seem like a puzzling regression. To explain how this total is reached, we must take a look at how the SCHOENE projection works.

"The process begins with player projections. Performance over the past three seasons, weighted by age, generates a baseline projection. SCHOENE uses this baseline projection, adjusted for league averages, to find the most similar past players in 13 categories (including height and weight) at the same age (within six months in either direction). A perfect match would be a 100, while anything better than 95 indicates close similarity and a score of better than 90 shows some similarity."

An element which might make or break this projection in the Pistons’ case is Reggie Jackson. While two years ago he was a fringe All Star, last season he was essentially the most self-damaging high usage player in the NBA. If Jackson can return to even a moderately-plus player, we can scrap the projections and start over.

The Pistons will also have to replace Marcus Morris in the starting lineup with either Stanley Johnson or Jon Leuer (most likely). While he’s a multi-year starter, Morris is perhaps viewed too highly here. Morris’ removal will accelerate Johnson’s development (for better or worse), and it should increase Tobias Harris‘ usage and minutes. Considering the fact that Harris was the best player on the Detroit Pistons’ roster last season, this could be a wash or better if Johnson blooms with an expanded role.

Next: What if the Pistons traded a member of their core?

Other notable projections include the Golden State Warriors winning just 62 games, two teams with winning records missing the playoffs in the Western Conference (the New Orleans Pelicans with 44.2 wins and the Portland Trail Blazers with 43.8 wins), and nobody in the Eastern Conference winning more than 50 games. The Boston Celtics are projected to win 49.4 games and the Cleveland Cavaliers are projected to win 49.2 games.

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