It’s over/under season in the NBA, so we’re going to take a look at some hypothetical over/unders for the Detroit Pistons. Get your bets in now.
When the Westgate Las Vegas releases their NBA win total over/unders, that signals the beginning of over/under season. In that vein, we’re going to go through a number of hypothetical over/under scenarios for the Detroit Pistons for the 2017-18 season, and include a recent Twitter poll for each to let you know where public sentiment lies.
Without further ado, let’s make some theoretical bets.
For starters, we’ll go with the Westgate’s over/under for the Pistons’ win total of 38.5 wins. Given the unknown nature of Reggie Jackson’s knee tendinitis, it’s a conservative but fair line.
Next up we have Stanley Johnson’s three-point percentage. Johnson is a 30.1 percent shoot from long range in his career, so 32 percent would be a step forward.
This is a big one. Reggie Jackson’s line of games started settles as 62.5, which I think is probably adequate even if he’s healthy. I maintain Jackson should be sitting in all second games of back-to-backs, and the Pistons have 14 such games. Assuming a couple other rest days brings us down to between 64 and 66 games. Much more than that may leave him depleted for a playoff run.
Last season Ish Smith averaged 24.1 minutes per game, but he also had 32 starts. If all goes well, he should have fewer starts, but he’ll still play far more minutes than most backup point guards given that even when healthy Reggie Jackson isn’t a player who can give heavy minutes every night.
Avery Bradley’s 17.5 points per game may be an exercise in optimism. He set a career high with 16.3 points per game last season, and that was on career high efficiency. We will likely see an increase in his usage, given that he won’t be playing with Isaiah Thomas any more, but we may be asking for more than he can provide offensively.
We’ll see about this one. Luke Kennard gets 5.5 starts as his line.
Andre Drummond’s line of 37.5 percent from the line could be interesting. He shot 35.5 percent in 2015-16 and shot 38.6 percent on 2016-17, but he shot below 27 percent for the final two months of last season.
Henry Ellenson’s line for minutes per game is set at 10.5.
The Pistons went 3-14 in second games of back-to-backs last year, and they have 14 such games this season. 5.5 wins would be a step forward, but just about the minimum acceptable number.
Boban Marjanovic’s minutes per game coming in at 20.5 is high, given that the Pistons plan on playing Jon Leuer at the five a good amount this season. If Boban can impress when he’s on the floor, though, maybe he can earn some more playing time.
Jon Leuer’s three-point percentage last year was a dreadful 29.3 percent, dragging his career rate all the way down to 33.8 percent. If he can get back the stroke he’s displayed in the past, however, this could be a low line.
Andre Drummond’s minutes dropped last season to 29.7 per game, down from 32.9 minutes the season before. This was due to a disproportionate number of blowouts in the first half of the season, a couple of injuries (and an ejection) occurring mid-game, and Drummond was also benched a couple of times throughout the season. An improvement might be expected.
An over on this one might be the height of optimism. 72 games would be the third-most games he’s played in a season, and Bradley’s career average is 59 games per season.
Most outlets are picking the Detroit Pistons to finish in the eight-to-nine range in the Eastern Conference.
The Detroit Pistons were a self-inflicted nightmare when Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond were on the floor together last year with a -6.6 net rating. A positive net rating would be a huge step in the right direction.
Next: Reggie Jackson is key to the Pistons' success
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