Second Look: Pistons vs. Hawks.

This game was not pretty at the end, but what sort of progress did the Pistons make before heading into the all-star break and what areas should they be most focused on improving over the break?

So the Detroit Pistons totally fell apart at the end right?
Do you want to do this first?

Yes. That fourth quarter gave me chronic diarrhea.
Ok then.

I suspected this on the first viewing but it was very confirmed on the second. The falling apart was very bad, but not so disastrously as it seemed and a lot of people made it out to be. Before I go into all the reasons it wasn’t so bad, I want to make it abundantly clear that it was bad, when I say “it wasn’t that bad” I’m referencing all the people who said it was a total disgrace.

I don’t believe you. That was a disgrace. No amount of videos and fancy rhetoric will change that.

Well, there is one first thing that should change your mind without even needing any clips or anything. The Hawks spent the first two and a half quarters missing tons of shots, including some good ones, especially from deep. They did not exactly heat up at the end of the game, but even with the roster, they put out they were unlikely to shoot so badly from all over the floor the entire game. If they had not had such a stark fluctuation and instead been more even throughout the game it has a very different feel.

Instead of a 30 point lead being whittled down it would’ve probably been a 20 point lead, at which point it is a game that gets too close for comfort but is not nearly so concerning.

Here is the other thing to remember, despite how close it got, the Pistons did not, in fact, blow the lead. The Pistons held on a won and the Pistons are not really in a situation to complain about a win, no matter how ugly.

Going to need more than that.

Beyond just the fact that both teams regressed to the mean (in opposite directions) in exactly a way that the lead got larger than it probably should’ve been, a whole bunch of weird stuff happened that I don’t expect would happen again.

Essentially the point is that I didn’t really see anything that I saw as a huge and enduring theme that worries me for the future. More than anything the Pistons let off the gas and the Hawks did not which was compounded by the stupid fouls at the end. Plays like this one show the general apathy that the Pistons fell into.

That just isn’t good enough. No one really gets back all the way and they let the Hawks go largely untouched all the way to the hoop. There were plenty of plays that embodied this. To be clear, that isn’t a good thing, but if you are going to get hopping mad about teams letting off the gas after getting a huge lead then you are going to have a bad time with the NBA.

On top of the general apathy on defense, the Pistons just blew a bunch of plays where they really shouldn’t have and won’t in the future.

Like that is a really good play by the Pistons. They set up a double team for Griffin which Nelson identifies and shoots into space where Griffin finds him. They also blew a few fast-break opportunities.

There were also plays like this, also involving Nelson.

I’m not going to show the fouls on the three-pointers because it isn’t so good for my inner peace, but calls like that contributed as well.

Basically, the Pistons started missing very makeable shots and the refs joined the Pistons in a kind of phoning in the game preferring to just let them play to get the game over, and only remembered that they can call touch fouls at the end of the game.

So then how bad was it?
Don’t get me wrong. It was bad, very bad. But it wasn’t as disastrously bad as some people made it out to be. There were at least five possessions where the Pistons are scoring pretty much any other night, so even if you give the Nets the crazy fouls and such at the end this game shouldn’t have gotten closer than ten.

On top of that, the Pistons have not had an effort problem this year. They are one of the better teams at protecting leads in the NBA and have made a bunch of comebacks (or near comebacks) with the same strategy that the Nets used in this game. Keep playing hard after the other team stops.

The only thing about it that was a real concern is that Ish Smith does have a real tendency to foul jump-shooters. He gets a lot of blocks for such a small guy, but those happen because he is always trying to block jump shots which results in fouls. This can be added to the ever-growing list of reasons to not have Ish Smith in at the end of games.

What about the rest of the game? How did the Pistons get their big lead?

A big part of the big lead was Ish Smith taking and hitting shots. If you are one of the people confused why it is that the Pistons struggled in games against the Hawks and Nets this is why:

Look how low they run that pick and roll for Smith and the Hawks still go way under the screen. The Nets did this too, and it killed the Pistons offense. Most teams are not this brave, but both the Hawks and Nets are bad teams with good coaches who are desperately trying to make up for a lack of talent by being willing to get creative with the game to game schemes.

As a result of this, they got way more brave than most teams about ignoring Ish Smith as a scorer and Smith was afraid to pull the trigger which has been a problem since the Griffin trade. The Pistons offense sputtered so much early in the game because of this. At the end of the first half though, Smith decided to just start shooting and he hit the shots.

Once again, the Pistons are setting up at the free throw line and the Hawks still go under the screen. They are literally letting Smith take a free throw. At that point, Smith has to shoot the ball, even if this results in Smith taking a ton of shots.

It is counter-intuitive because Smith is a very inefficient scorer who you don’t want shooting too much, but if he can’t hit those shots it is impossible to run a functional offense. Smith closed the first half by hitting shots on four straight possessions and just like that the Nets had to actually defend him a little:

With those jumpers still fresh in their minds, the Hawks actually go over a screen and the Pistons have hit pay dirt. Smith is heading to the rim and Dedmon is afraid to help off Drummond for fear of getting dunked on and Smith gets an easy layup.

If the Pistons continue to start Smith then this has to become a theme. It isn’t great, but the Pistons have to make teams respect Smith at least a little and if he cannot hit those shots then they can’t play him. It’s just that simple.

Also as a side note, go back to that possession a second:

Another example of what the fear of Drummond’s rebounding looks like. Look at where Drummond is and then look at Dedmon. Drummond is literally zero threat out there, and yet Dedmon checks on him several times and doesn’t even try to go for the rebound but just stays in place to box Drummond out.

So if you wonder why it is that Drummond doesn’t seem to get as many of those hustle rebounders where the ball careens into space and Drummond goes and gets it, this is why. No one ever lets Drummond get into space. Most coaches give the guy on Drummond explicit instructions to never let him out of their sight.

Guys like Tristan Thompson, or on the Pistons roster Eric Moreland, thrive in space. They always go to the ball and if you lose them for even a moment their maniacal energy and strength can get them loose balls. Drummond can do that too, but no one really gives him a chance.

So what about the rest of the offense? Is it improving?

Yes!

It still has not always looked pretty, and it remains a question if they will get an effective way to integrate Griffin into the offense (especially this season) but they are moving in the right direction. The awful post-ups and isolations that started out by the three-point line are already almost totally gone and Griffin operated almost exclusively from the elbows as a passer:

Or playing pick and roll as the pick setter.

In particular, that first play is something new that they put in that they used regularly. Griffin with the ball up top and the point guard and small forward doing two-man stuff off the ball and it resulted in some really solid looks even if the Pistons didn’t always finish them effectively:

One thing I like about the way they’ve used Smith as a screener is that they often take advantage of the fact that no one guards him which makes it easier for him to slip into space.

Even when Griffin ended up going it alone, it was in situations that you want, after running motion sets that don’t result in anything good:

Both of the above plays are how you want to utilize Griffin’s post up and isolation game. It isn’t something that is ideal as a first option, but rather as the bail-out at the end of a possession. In both cases, the Pistons run motion sets that don’t really yield anything, with about ten seconds left on the shot clock Griffin then aborts and takes it solo.

The lack of having that option was a huge problem for the Pistons following the injury to Reggie Jackson. Early in the season when the motion offense broke down they would just kick it out and have Jackson and Drummond run a pick and roll, now they have Griffin.

So what does that all mean?

They are moving in the right direction for both the coaching staff and the players. First off is that they have enough stuff put in place that Griffin isn’t forced to just go isolation all the time, and Griffin and his teammates are getting comfortable enough with each other that they can actually execute the plays and even improvise a bit.

Go back and just watch all the above clips, that does not look like a crew that has been together for a couple of weeks. It was ugly at times, but it is good progress. Griffin may have hunted the triple-double a little bit too much late in the game, but he was looking very comfortable as a passer most of the night which is a great sign going forward.

Any little things?

Yes of course.

First off, a lot of people seem to struggle a bit with what it is exactly that separates guys on defense. It’s obvious to see Stanley Johnson‘s effectiveness when he is checking great wing players, but what about the rest of the time? Watch this play but just watch Johnson:

That is perfect individual defensive effort and he barely spends any time on the ball. Anthony Tolliver blows it by slipping but still. Johnson first makes his rotation down under the hoop, takes one step further to ensure that Miles Plumlee doesn’t have a free roll to the hoop until Griffin can recover, then gets over to his guy in the corner in time to not allow an open three without overplaying to give a chance to drive. Then when a pick comes he seamlessly switches with Tolliver and bullies a much bigger player for position to make sure no easy pass can be made to Dedmon.

That is what separates a guy like Johnson from a guy like Tobias Harris. Harris is a half-step slower on each of those rotations and by the time you get to the end of the possession he is far enough behind that someone is getting an open look, whether it would’ve been DeAndre’ Bembry for a corner three or Dedmon getting an easy bucket at the hoop. Johnson is not that perfect every possession, but he’s pretty close.

On the note of defense, after the last Hawks game, I highlighted a possession where Drummond was brilliant defensively and praised him a bunch. With that said, I figure it would be fair to show where he still has work to do, which is being that good, focused, and perfect every possession.

The problem on that play is not actually the fact that he doesn’t even pretend to recover to stop the drive. There are a lot of guys who will give sort of token efforts in that situation so that it looks like they are trying, Drummond, isn’t one of them.

By the time he reacts he has no chance anyway so that isn’t a big deal. The problem is that when he goes up to play defense he is like two full steps out of position. Seriously, look at how far away from that pick he is. That makes it way too easy for the ball handler to just veer away from the pick and get a free layup. That is not an effort lapse, it’s a mental one.

Drummond has to approach every possession with this kind of intensity, focus, and obsession to do things right:

Just look at the difference between those two plays. In the first one Drummond just sort of takes a nice Sunday stroll while sort of hunched over and by the time he realizes how far out of position he is the ball is being laid into the hoop.

In the second play, Drummond gets low, moves his feet, hands, and reads Collins like a book and swats the ever-loving crap out of his jump shot.

Drummond has improved immensely on defense this year, but that is the next step. He is at a point that when he is focused he can read offensive sets at the speed he needs to in order to make plays and be in the right places. The next step is keeping that level of focus and commitment to the little things in every possession.

Be like that Stanley Johnson possession, where even though nothing there will go in the box-score or a highlight reel (other than the one in my heart) they are the things that are the difference between good and great defense.

Luke Kennard also continues to impress me with his ability to leverage the threat of his jump shot calmly and effectively.

Like, that’s just a really nice play for a young player. He reads that the defender (Mike Muscala I think) is coming too hard so he does a little pump fake, steps inside and takes the shot. Even though he didn’t do it here, he’s also done a good job of being less willing to surrender the three-point line in these situations so instead of taking a long two he takes a three.

Anything that’s just fun?

I’ve got three plays that are just for fun. First off, check out this lovely little set the Pistons put in place when Drummond is on the floor with the bench mob:

Oh, baby that is mean and really well executed. Great play design and also cool that James Ennis, who has been with the team such a short time, was able to be a part of it.

This is also another kind reminder that in Stanley Johnson’s user manual I’m pretty sure it says “Diesel fuel only”

My man is figuring it out. His on/off floor splits have been great since the trade as well. The Pistons have a net rating of +10.1 with Johnson on the floor and -10.4 when he’s off over the last eight games. The bigger thing to look at is the fact that the Pistons have an offensive efficiency of 108 points per 100 possessions with him at that time.

It is worth mentioning that all the starters have really good offensive efficiencies so it probably isn’t that Stanley Johnson is the one making the offense good, but early in the season the numbers suggested that Johnson alone was a huge problem for the offense, while now he is getting out in transition, passing, and charging into the paint enough to tip that towards his favor. This is a big thing to keep an eye on. Johnson is also shooting 35.7% from deep over that stretch.

Lastly is another reminder. This time to appreciate how cool it is to have these two guys as the Pistons starting front-court:

Woof.

How much progress should we expect after the all-star break with the offense?

Some. Other than specific situations (favorable matchups, crunch time stuff) the awful Griffin isolations should be gone for good, at least in any sort of volume but that already was pretty much the case the last couple of games. I’m very interested to see what sort of stuff the coaching staff comes back with.

And look, I know how frustrated a lot of people have been with the way the team has looked since the trade and there is good reason for that. The coaching staff does not get awesome grades over this stretch, Griffin is taking too many threes, there is no spacing in the starting lineup, Ish Smith shouldn’t be playing late in games, and Drummond started to drift back towards posting up more to name a few problems.

But this is a tall order to change on the fly, and even if they didn’t make progress at the rate you maybe would’ve liked, they definitely were moving in the right direction with the way the offense had changed from Griffin’s first game in Detroit to the latest.

They should run more pick and rolls closer to the basket, especially with Griffin as the ball handler. Having him and Drummond run them out by the three-point line does nothing. It’s awkward to operate with such tight spacing but Griffin and Drummond are good enough to make it work I think.

I also wouldn’t mind matching backup point guards to each of the Pistons stars. Play Galloway with Griffin since Griffin can do more ball-handling stuff and play Nelson with Drummond who has more need of a proper ball handler.

Overall I was encouraged by the way the team is moving, but now it will be time to get it done. Fatigue probably was a problem for Griffin, he even admitted it, which is fine because he had his entire life uprooted very suddenly and then had to play a bunch of games. Now he’s had a week off to get right and hopefully get more comfortable with the offense and defense.

You gave a bunch of positives. What are some trends that are not as good?

The biggest one is Drummond’s scoring efficiency coming largely from more bad post-ups. He’s better at them now since he can actually draw fouls, but it still isn’t ideal. Part of that is just the offense getting messed up by the turnover and will get better.

Fewer sets mean more plays where the ball just kind of ends up in someone’s hands and they have to do something, with Drummond that often ends in a terrible jump-hook. But long term I’m a little bit worried, Stan Van Gundy has said that Drummond has never complained about shot attempts but that Drummond likes to have the ball in his hands which is totally fine.

The problem is that whenever he is on the floor with Griffin there isn’t much reason to run those motion sets with Drummond as the focal point other than as an occasional change of pace. Griffin is just a lot better at them.

I hope that the Pistons can find him enough in those sets and let him splurge when Griffin isn’t on the floor enough that Drummond doesn’t start hunting for post-ups too much in an effort to have the ball a bit more. This isn’t a huge worry right now, but just something to keep an eye on.

The other big thing is the current starting lineup. They actually have been very good, in 148 minutes they have a net efficiency of +7.6 with an offensive efficiency of 102.5 and a defensive efficiency of 95. On one hand, this fits with how that lineup can work.

Scrape out points however you can and defend like crazy. The thing that worries me is that opponents are shooting just over 30% from deep against that lineup which isn’t likely to sustain. It is worth mentioning that they are similarly stingy against non-threes so they should still be good defensively but they can’t afford to be anything less than great defensively to make that work.

Prediction post all-star break?

A lot depends on Reggie Jackson. I think if Jackson comes back on schedule (which so far so good in that department) and is ready to go the Pistons will freaking blitz people. Seriously. Jackson should be able to plug in mostly seamlessly, give the Pistons some much-needed breathing room since people actually defend him, and the Pistons will finally have the thing they’ve needed so badly since Stan Van Gundy arrived. Two legit crunch-time offensive options. They can put the ball in Jackson or Griffin’s hands and let them do stuff. It is also worth remembering that the area Jackson truly excels in is the pick and roll, and he is now playing with two of the best pick and roll big men in the league.

So if Jackson comes back healthy I think the Pistons will blitz their way up to maybe the 6th seed and win a playoff series and probably put a real scare into someone in the second round and go into the off-season with real hope that they can do something next year.

What if he doesn’t?

I’d guess that the Pistons will probably sneak into the playoffs, but it would be really close. They will be a pain for whoever is the top seed in the first round but that’s it. They need Jackson to really unlock this team.