Life comes at you fast. A year ago, the Detroit Pistons were on the verge of offering Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a max contract. Then a trade with the Boston Celtics changed everything. And one question will always remain. What if the Pistons had paid Caldwell-Pope?
A total of 350 days had passed since Kentavious Caldwell-Pope last trotted out onto the Detroit Pistons’ floor.
That streak ended Tuesday night at Little Caesars Arena.
Here was a familiar face, who for the first time in his career, sat on the visitor’s bench in Detroit.
Yeah, life comes at you fast.
Caldwell-Pope scored 13 points against the team that drafted him. He hit a few of his traditional catch-and-shoot triples, as you can see in the video below. But the Pistons got the last laugh, as they defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 112-106.
A year ago, the thought of Caldwell-Pope wearing purple and gold would’ve been laughable. He was a key part of the Pistons’ rotation, and had matured as a scorer in his fourth season.
But player movement has always been frequent in the Stan Van Gundy era. An opportunity arose, and the Pistons elected to part ways with Caldwell-Pope.
Now that we’ve had almost an entire season to digest that decision, it’s time to ask the ultimate question – one that can never truly be answered.
But before doing so, let’s take a step back and analyze how we got here.
What happened
Caldwell-Pope became a restricted free agent at the end of the 2016-17 season. This meant that opposing teams could offer him a contract. However, the Pistons would have the option to match any offer sheet. If they decided not to, Caldwell-Pope was then free to sign with the highest bidder.
Now if there was zero interest in his services, he could’ve signed a one-year qualifying offer to remain with Detroit. Once that season was over, Caldwell-Pope would’ve been an unrestricted free agent.
The Pistons entered free agency with three shooting guards on the roster: Luke Kennard, Michael Gbinije and Caldwell-Pope. Kennard had just been drafted the month prior, and Gbinije played only nine games in 2016-17. So after Caldwell-Pope, depth was very much in question at this position.
Stan Van Gundy signed free agent shooting guard Langston Galloway on Jul. 6, 2017. His arrival meant that Gbinije was the odd man out.
But on the very next day, Van Gundy shocked the NBA world when he traded for another two-guard in Avery Bradley. Detroit sent Marcus Morris and 2019 second-round pick to the Celtics in exchange for the 27-year-old
Boston was looking to clear cap space, and would ink Gordon Hayward to a four-year deal one week later.
This time, it was Caldwell-Pope who found himself on the outside looking in. Bradley had the reputation of being a better defender, and was (statistically) a better scorer.
Shortly after the trade was reported, the Pistons renounced their rights to Caldwell-Pope. He was now an unrestricted free agent.
Caldwell-Pope signed a one-year deal with the Lakers on Jul. 13. In 64 games this season, he is averaging 13.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. The former-Piston is shooting a career-high 40 percent from the 3-point line.
What if?
It’s too early to tell whether or not allowing Caldwell-Pope to walk was the right decision. That’ll be answered in the coming years.
But what if the Pistons had offered Caldwell-Pope a max contract? Would this season have been any different?
You can never be sure with Van Gundy, but it’s likely that the beginning of the year would’ve remained the same.
In addition to Caldwell-Pope, the Pistons, presumably, still would’ve had Marcus Morris on the roster. So their starting five would be quite familiar with Reggie Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Morris, Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond.
Harris’ hot start to the 2017-18 season would probably still happen in this alternate reality. Remember, he averaged 18.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game on 47 percent shooting in the month of November. Does a substitution of Caldwell-Pope for Bradley inhibit Harris’ production? I’ll say no.
Sure, Morris’ presence might’ve taken more scoring opportunities away from Harris. Especially when compared to Stanley Johnson, who is only averaging 7.8 field goal attempts per game. Morris averaged 12.7 in his final year as a Piston.
Now the determining factor would be if the Pistons could’ve fared just as well defensively with Caldwell-Pope than they did with Bradley. The short answer is yes.
Last season, they ranked eighth overall in defensive rating, allowing 107.1 points per 100 possessions. This season, the Pistons sit at No. 11 in that metric, allowing 107.2 points per 100 possessions.
In the grand scheme of things, Bradley’s short stop in Detroit barely moved the needle.
The Griffin Gamble
But one aspect of this “what if” scenario is fairly certain. Blake Griffin is not a Piston if last summer’s trade with Boston never occurs.
It’s hard to fathom the Griffin acquisition going down if you replace Caldwell-Pope with Bradley. One has been named to the All-Defensive Team twice. The other received a single vote for that same honor last year.
You can argue that Caldwell-Pope is younger, and you’d be right.
You can argue that Caldwell-Pope is a better 3-point shooter, and you’d be right.
Heck, you can argue that Caldwell-Pope will come at a better price, and you’ll probably be right.
But accolades matter, particularly in the NBA. Bradley, Harris, Boban Marjanovic and two future draft picks sounds a lot more enticing than Caldwell-Pope headlining the trade. Which is why the Clippers pulled the trigger.
There aren’t many certainties as to what would’ve have happened had Detroit paid Caldwell-Pope.
Wait. I’ll leave you with one.
Tom Gores wouldn’t have sat court side for a February game against the Memphis Grizzlies.