A look at some projected win totals for the Detroit Pistons

The 2018-19 NBA season is well over a month away. But that hasn’t stopped basketball analysts from predicting win totals for the upcoming year. Here’s a look at how the Detroit Pistons fare.

For the ninth time in the last 10 years, the Detroit Pistons fell short of 40 wins last season. A 39-43 record resulted in a major overhaul to the front office and coaching staff.

With those changes in place, and the departure of LeBron James to the Western Conference, the Pistons have legitimate playoff aspirations.

So, what’s a realistic record for Detroit this season? Well that depends on who you ask. Here’s a look at the Pistons’ projected win totals from several media outlets.

CBS Sports’ SportsLine: 39.6 wins

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh ran win total simulations for all 30 teams. The Pistons’ projected outcome mirrors last season’s tally of 39 wins.

It’s frustrating to think that the personnel changes mentioned above may not be enough to move the needle. But Oh had this say regarding the Pistons.

"If they could stay healthy then they could be a 45-win team, but the model is assuming Blake Griffin, et al will not be playing more than 70 games."

As was the case with the previous two years, health will largely determine whether or not Detroit will be playing in late April. That goes not only for Blake Griffin, but for starting point guard Reggie Jackson as well.

Still, a 39.6 projection was good enough for the No. 7 seed in SportsLine’s model.

ESPN Forecast panel: 38 wins

Back in August, ESPN published their own win projections for the 2018-19 season. They decided to predict the full record for each team (both wins and losses).

ESPN expects the Pistons to finish with a 38-44 record, thus earning them the final playoff spot in the East.

"Despite hiring the reigning NBA Coach of the Year in Dwane Casey, the Pistons’ win projection is actually lower than their win total from last season. Still, the Pistons, who have only one playoff appearance in the past nine seasons, are projected to be in the mix for a playoff spot with Casey’s leadership and a full season of Blake Griffin."

There’s no explanation as to why their projection falls below last year’s total.

Now to be fair, the Pistons did have a losing record (11-14) with Griffin in the lineup. But one could argue that a “full season of Blake Griffin” should garner more victories.

He did average 0.938 points per possession (PPP) in those 25 games, and that was after being thrust into an offense that wasn’t designed for him.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Bleacher Report: 37 wins

Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pistons shake things up at the trade deadline again. That should give you a good indication as to where Bleacher Report’s projection is headed.

If Detroit finishes with a 37-45 record (as Buckley predicts), that’s entirely possible. But Buckley and his colleagues are more worried about the Pistons’ core.

"“Griffin is 29, has at least one surgery every year, has missed 107 games over the past four seasons and is in obvious athletic decline,” Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes wrote. “Drummond is a dinosaur at center, and Jackson is a mid-tier starter who has missed 70 games in his three full seasons with the team.“That’s not a core. That’s a disaster.”"

Ouch. While there’s no debating the injury concerns surrounding Griffin and Jackson, I was quite surprised to see Hughes label Andre Drummond as a “dinosaur”.

Last season, Drummond had a career-year in multiple statistical categories. The “dinosaur at center” averaged 15.0 points, 16.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game.

He increased his free-throw shooting by 21.9 percentage points from the previous season. And, for the millionth time, he is working a mid-range and 3-point shot.

Drummond has his flaws. But to write him off completely (especially after what he did last year), well, that’s just being lazy.

Now that you’ve seen some of the national predictions, how do you think the Detroit Pistons will fare in the win column?

Do you agree with the three projections listed above? If not, why? Let us know in the comment section below.