Detroit Pistons 2018-19 season preview: Odds Edition
Blake Griffin +22500 to win MVP (Risk $100 Win $22,500) via Odds Shark
Some may label me a Blake Griffin apologist for even mentioning this prop, but that is a lot of money.
I mean, look, Griffin is not winning the MVP, and Vegas clearly agrees. But I stared at this for about three minutes calculating how many injuries would need to take place for this to happen. I’m really out here trying to pay off these student loans.
To get an idea of where Griffin lands in the hierarchy of NBA stars, (Drummond is not even listed, which is odd because if I had to pick one of the two to be in the conversation this year it’d be Andre) let’s look at who else Vegas lists with similar odds.
The player listed with the next best odds of winning MVP is DeMarcus Cousins. Okay, I won’t refute the fact that Cousins has been the better player over the past three years. But Cousins isn’t likely to see the floor until the regular season is already well under-way.
Combine this with the fact that he’d have to outplay both Steph Curry and Kevin Durant on a nightly basis, and you see why I’m confused. That’s much more unlikely, to me, than Griffin returning to MVP-candidate form.
To be completely honest though, Griffin isn’t returning to MVP form. He hasn’t played in an All-Star Game since 2015. His field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, rebounds, and points have gone down in all four of those years – all indications that he is a player on the decline.
He’s adapted, somewhat, by becoming an average jump-shooter. But that further detracts from his greatest strength: getting to the rim.
That skill is also deteriorating, as his driving style these days is less of the “blow by his man” sort, and more of a jerky slither, which adds to his injury concerns.
This leaves today’s Blake Griffin in a precarious position. He’s still talented enough offensively to carry the load on any given night. But the play style he’s most effective at is taxing for an aging veteran and it requires for the ball to be in his hands.
It also doesn’t mesh well with the Pistons’ best player, Andre Drummond. Unless Drummond becomes the stretch five we all totally figured he would become.
It’ll be fascinating to see how Griffin continues to adapt his game. If he can become a more consistent jump-shooter (not only from the 3-point line but from the post) than he should be able to age more gracefully.
He’s a talented ball-handler and passer for his size, which makes him a joy to watch with the ball. But sometimes, the Pistons’ offense does a little too much Blake-watching.