What’s real and what’s fake from the Detroit Pistons’ first five games

The Detroit Pistons are off to a 4-1 start this season. Let’s run through some numbers and trends, then grade how real or fake they are.

How will we be grading this?

On a totally arbitrary scale of “not fake” to “totally fake.” The more fake something is, the less likely it is to hold up over the course of the season.

Blake Griffin/Ish Smith shooting over 50 percent from deep: Almost totally fake.

Some regression for Blake Griffin started in the game against Boston already, but more is coming for each of these two.

The only reason that this isn’t totally fake is that it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities that one or both of them are much-improved shooters.

I’d guess both end up around or below 35 percent from deep when all is said and done. But I could see either one of them sticking in the upper 30’s, so let’s just say almost totally fake.

Detroit Pistons shooting 33 percent from deep as a team: Mostly real, and only slightly fake.

The Pistons will shoot better than that, but especially if Glenn Robinson III struggles to break into the rotation, there is a very good chance they struggle to get much beyond 35 percent on the season.

Reggie Jackson and Blake Griffin are their main offensive cogs and neither are sharpshooters. Ish Smith is currently fifth on the team in minutes as well, and his percentage is only going to go down.

The irony is that both Langston Galloway and Reggie Bullock have shot terribly early on, so that should even out. Regardless, they will shoot better, but probably not a whole lot better than that.

Andre Drummond leads the team in usage percentage (at 29.3 percent): Pretty fake (Hopefully).

This is mostly just me being hopeful. I love Andre Drummond, but he should not lead the team in usage.

That being said, the Pistons are clearly giving him a high-usage role on purpose. So I would guess that he will remain a high-usage player the entire year, which is a bad sign for the offense given how much of that usage is spent on post-ups.

Blake Griffin’s net rating (+7.0) being so much better than anyone else. (Second best is Ish Smith at +1.7): Not fake at all.

The gap will close. If nothing else, Griffin will continue to cool off and he will join the others in the cellar. That said, Griffin is very likely to have the best on/off numbers the entire season, especially if the Pistons remain so averse to letting Jackson and Drummond run pick and rolls.

Ish Smith being fifth and Langston Galloway being sixth on the team in minutes: Not even a little bit fake.

If you’ve followed me on Twitter at all, you know that I predicted Galloway leap-frogging Luke Kennard in the rotation before the season, as well as the heavy 3-guard lineups.

I’m doubtful about their long-term prospects with such lineups, but I very much believe that Dwane Casey will continue to lean heavily on Smith and Galloway all season.

The Pistons are 4-1: Mostly fake.

The Detroit Pistons may very well be 4-1, but three of their four wins came against bad teams and the fourth was against a Philadelphia 76ers team without Ben Simmons.

The Pistons currently have the 16th best net rating in the NBA at -1.4 points per 100 possessions. I have faith they can get things together, but their record does not reflect their level of play.

They could very easily be 2-3 even with their weaker opponents, and if they were playing tougher opponents, they’d almost certainly be 2-3. Or worse.

The good news, however, is that the Pistons began the season with some severe issues but managed to win games anyways. They won a few games when they shouldn’t have, which will help them down the road if they can get their act together.

They probably deserve to be at least 3-2, probably 2-3, so at the end of the season remember to be thankful that the Detroit Pistons stole a couple of wins.