Detroit Pistons Mock Offseason 1.0: Free Agency

In this follow-up article of the Pistons Mock Offseason–Scenario A, I will continue a hypothetical version of how this summer could go for the Detroit Pistons.

The Game Plan

The front office was encouraged with the play of the Pistons last season, but identified a few spots that were in need of a clear upgrade: starting and backup small forward, a backup and third point guard, and a backup big man.

With the goal of maximizing Blake Griffin’s window, the front office decided to draft seasoned players who are ready to contribute right away. They filled two of their five open roster spots by selecting sharp-shooting 6’8” forward, Cameron Johnson, out of North Carolina with the 15th pick and spark-plug 6’1” point guard, Shamorie Ponds, out of St. John’s. Johnson slots into the backup three spot while Ponds settles into the third point guard role.

This leaves the Pistons with remaining holes at starting small forward, backup point guard, and a backup big man. As an over the cap team, the only tools at the Pistons’ disposal are the $9.2 million Mid-Level Exception (MLE), the $3.6 million Bi-Annual Exception (BAE), and minimum exceptions. If the Pistons were to use the full MLE, the BAE, and one minimum salary, If the Pistons were to use every last penny of each of those to sign three free agents, they would barely sneak into the tax. While it may be beneficial to spend as much as they can. It would be wise not to dip into the tax just so one can spend half a million more of the BAE, for example. Detroit will save the tax for if they really need it to upgrade the team through a trade during the season.

Starting Small Forward

To fill the gap at small forward, the Pistons would like to find a wing taller than 6’6” to cover the bigger wings of other playoff teams. Ideally, this person can spread the floor to open up the offense and put the ball on the floor to score in the midrange or at the rim. Under this scenario, it makes the most sense to use the full MLE in order to get the wing who best fits this description.

The large wings that Detroit could hope to get who figure to make the full MLE or more on the unrestricted free agent market are Marcus Morris, Trevor Ariza, Terrence Ross, Rodney Hood, and Rudy Gay. There will be teams with cap space that strike out on the top-level guys at the wing and settle for guys in this tier.

Of the aforementioned wings, Ariza and Gay are over 30. They are more likely to sign one-year deals for more money than the younger guys who are looking for more of the long-term money. They find themselves out of Detroit’s price range.

Terrence Ross had a solid season, shooting the most 3-point attempts per game of his career at 38.3%. However, the role he thrived in with Orlando slotted him as the sixth man. Instead, the Pistons look to someone who can fit more into a starting role, preferably Morris or Hood.

Marcus Morris started 53 games for Boston this past year and had one of his most productive years. He shot more threes per game than he ever has (5.2 per game) and made a solid 37.5% of them. While Detroit is familiar with Morris, having traded him to Boston, he has improved as a player since leaving. Some of that may be because of the Brad Stevens experience, but maybe it is a trend that will continue to his next destination.

Boston has bigger tasks at hand this summer than re-signing Morris, and perhaps he’d be open to a return to Detroit. However, there are some teams (Denver, Indiana, or Utah) that may be able to offer him more money that have a better chance of winning and may see him as a key player to push them to the next level. Morris may find his way out of the Pistons’ price range.

That leaves Rodney Hood. Before this Portland playoff run, not many people had Hood slotted to make the full MLE. Fresh off a season when no one would give him an offer sheet that the cash-strapped Cavaliers wouldn’t match, it didn’t appear that Hood had much going for him. He had been viewed as a theoretical and inconsistent wing who might never put it all together. Then the Denver series happened.

Hood averaged almost 15 points while shooting 50% from distance. Without Hood the Trail Blazers would have been at home watching the Western Conference finals instead of playing against the Warriors. Against Denver’s smaller wings, Hood was able to get wherever he wanted on the floor, rise up, and knock down shot after shot. He seemed to realize the potential that many had seen in him.

Yet, Portland has decisions to make this offseason. As a team that has flirted with the luxury tax, they have Al-Farouq Aminu to pay, not to mention Seth Curry, Enes Kanter. They can sign Aminu with bird rights, but his cap hold of more than $10 million will keep the Blazers as a team that is operating near or over the tax. Portland has some interesting decisions to make, and they may not have the money to retain Hood.

This leaves the Pistons able to offer the full MLE for Rodney Hood at whatever year-length he prefers. While there may be other teams out there that can offer that same figure, Detroit can offer a starting role. He would get the opportunity to prove that the player we are seeing in the playoffs. The Pistons lock up Rodney Hood to a two-year $19 million deal with a player option in year two.

Backup Point Guard

With the Pistons renounced Ish Smith’s $11.4 million cap hold, they lost the ability to resign him with bird rights. Renouncing his rights was necessary in order to sign Rodney Hood at the full MLE. The Pistons would have brought Ish Smith back if he was willing to take a pay cut to $3.6 million per year, but unable to agree on a deal, the Pistons decided to move on from him.

The Pistons opt to use the BAE on a backup point guard because of the difficulty that comes with finding contributing backup point guards at the minimum. With only $3.6 million to spend, the Pistons are out of the running for names like Patrick Beverley, Ricky Rubio, and Seth Curry. Even Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, and George Hill could be a bit out of range.

Obviously, some guys could get squeezed out of the market, but the Pistons turn their sights to a tier of guys such as Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, T.J. McConnell, Jeremy Lin, and Trey Burke.

The major downfall of Ish Smith was his ability to spread the floor, so the Pistons would like to improve upon that with this signing. This eliminates Elfrid Payton and Jeremy Lin from the discussion. While McConnell shot a better percentage than Smith, he only attempted 0.6 shots from 3-point range per game. He won’t put much fear into a defense from the perimeter.

That leaves Derrick Rose and Trey Burke. Rose is just coming off a career year shooting the ball from three, shooting 37% on 2.9 attempts per game. While Burke didn’t quite hit that mark, he shot a respectable 35.2% on 2.7 attempts per game. However, Burke has been more steady from deep averaging 34% for his career compared to Rose’s 30.4%. Last season could be evidence that Rose’s game has evolved, or it could be an outlier that is unlikely to continue.

While there are good arguments for Detroit to go after Rose, the Pistons settle on Trey Burke, who boasted an impressive 3.4 assist for every turnover last year. He also had a higher free throw attempt rate than Rose did last year. He is also four years younger than Rose. While neither would be the worst option, Detroit opts for Burke and signs him to a two year deal for part of the BAE. Since Detroit doesn’t want to go into the tax, they start the Burke contract at $3.4 million this year as opposed to the full $3.6 million within the BAE.

Backup Center

Detroit now turns to fill its vacant backup center position that was occupied by Zaza Pachulia last year, but all that remains is a minimum exception. The Pistons could look to bring back Boban Marjanovic, but unfortunately the CBA won’t allow Marjanovic and Tobias Harris to be on separate teams (this is, of course, not at all true). Therefore, the Pistons turn the likes of Ed Davis and Richaun Holmes.

Both players stand at 6’10”, but they bring slightly different skill sets to the game. Ed Davis’ strength revolves around rebounding the basketball. Homes, is a better rim protector and is slightly more efficient on the offensive end. The Pistons decide to go the more youthful route by adding Holmes to round off the roster at the minimum.

Offseason Reflection

In this exercise the Pistons ended up with Rodney Hood and Cameron Johnson at the wing. They brought the height to a Detroit team that was sorely missing it on the wing in the Milwaukee Bucks series. The Pistons hope that they get the Denver series version of Rodney Hood instead of the Cleveland Cavaliers version we saw a year ago. Additionally, Cam Johnson brings floor spacing to a second unit that desperately needed it.

Trey Burke and Shamorie Ponds bring more shooting behind Reggie Jackson. Trey Burke won’t be able to do all the things that Ish Smith did, but the spacing and scoring that he provides while taking care of the basketball will be useful. Jose Calderon’s negative impact for the Pistons in his limited role as the third point guard cannot be overlooked. Shamorie Ponds can almost certainly provide more on both ends of the court than Calderon did.

While bringing in Richaun Holmes isn’t flashy, he is more athletic than Zaza Pachulia and should bring more to that spot than Pachulia did. There were some matchups that Pachulia just couldn’t play in, and the hope is that Holmes gives you less of those matchups.

All in all, the Pistons spent $131.9 million to narrowly avoid the tax. In spending the full MLE on Rodney Hood (and part of the BAE on Burke, for that matter), the Pistons hard capped themselves for the season at $138 million, which shouldn’t be a problem considering they were trying to avoid the tax this year. All major roster holes were filled, and the Pistons are ready to compete with a tweaked roster that boasts more shooting and floor spacing for Blake Griffin.