Detroit Pistons: Setting realistic expectations for Sekou Doumbouya

Offense down the road

Doumbouya’s offensive potential lies in his combination of size and shooting ability. His mechanics look good at a young age and he’s shown great improvement in that department. His size allows him to be used as a screener which is a fairly easy way to get him open threes.

Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez, Blake Griffin, Lauri Markkanen, Danilo Galinari and Marvin Williams were the only players over 6-foot-9 that played over 30 games in the NBA last year to shoot over 36 percent on more than five attempts per game. Kevin Durant surprisingly shot 35.3 percent. Kevin Love only played 22 games, Ryan Anderson barely played and Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play at all but I digress.

Mirotic and Markannen were the only ones to do it two years in a row. When you look at per 36 numbers these names pop up. Luke Kornet, Davis Bertans, Frank Kaminsky, Jonas Jerebko, Bobby Portis, DJ Wilson, Nemanja Bjelica, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bruno Caboclo and Dario Saric.

Doumbouya shot 4.7 attempts per 36 minutes last year making 34.5 percent. That doesn’t tell us much more than that he has the potential to be that guy in the NBA. The important thing to note here is that he is significantly more athletic than almost everybody on that list.

And that’s the thing. The Pistons rookie has the potential to be a  tall, athletic, switching defender that can shoot a lot of three’s and that’s a very rare combination in the NBA.

Most of the guys listed are even bad defenders but they still play 20 minutes because they’re tall and can shoot a lot of three’s. The reason they don’t get 30 minutes is that they can’t do much of the other stuff or are not good enough to hold their own on defense against starters.

Doumbouya, on the other hand, projects to be a good defender, and if he reaches a point where he shoots more than five attempts per game on good efficiency, that’s an extremely valuable high-end role player even if he doesn’t do much else.

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That’s why shooting is such a big priority with him and, given what his role is going to be early on, the base on which he can add more things to his offensive game. To improve as a shooter he’ll probably have to start bringing the ball up farther away from his face. That will raise his release point which will also probably fix the problem with the arc on his shot.

Being a threat to shoot in spot-up and pick-and-pop situations will open up his driving game. Then he’ll have to add some advanced drive moves and through-contact finishes. Improving as a movement shooter will open up opportunities for fast break three’s and combined with an improved handle can take his transition game into a whole other level.

Then he can add some pull-ups as he works on his handles. Then he can extend his pull up game to the 3-point line which will open up a whole new world of opportunities. Now the coaches can use him coming off curls, dribble handoffs and maybe some pick-and-roll.

If that happens he’ll have to learn how to pass out of those situations and take advantage of the attention he gets. Defenses will start switching and he’ll get some mismatches. He’ll have to learn to consistently punish smaller guys in the post and potentially take bigger guys off the dribble.

I can go on and on. There’s no ceiling to how much he can learn to do on offense but there’s a limiting parameter. Time. Again, how fast he learns depends on how smart he is and how hard he works. It’s difficult to learn to do all those things. Not many players can manage.

So look for signs of high IQ. Look for plays where Doumbouya has to make quick calculations of multiple parameters. Look for improvement in his footwork, awareness and shooting mechanics. High IQ players learn fast and the ones that also have the physical tools become stars and superstars.