What to expect when you’re not expecting
Doumbouya is so young that he probably won’t get regular minutes in the rotation. It’s entirely possible that Doumbouya is the worst player on the roster next year and that’s fine. So, don’t expect much.
But while you’re not expecting, expect these things to happen. The lack of depth at the forward spots ensures that he’ll get some spot minutes. Injuries, foul trouble and inadequate performances will happen and Doumbouya will be the next option to get minutes.
He’ll probably look out of sorts at first but he’ll show flashes of what he can be as a player. He’ll get better as the season goes on. Maybe he’ll even surpass Maker or Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and become the de facto backup small/power forward at some point during the season.
Getting minutes because he’s better than the other options is a good scenario. The bad scenario would be Markieff Morris or even worse, Tony Snell, missing significant time and Doumbouya having to fill in. That could prove to be a good thing for the rookie’s development but not for the team.
It’s extremely difficult to predict how a player’s career will turn out. There are plenty of potential roadblocks to any player’s career. Injuries, bad coaching, front office impatience. I don’t like worst/best case scenarios because “never playing in the NBA” is always the worst case for every rookie.
Where’s the fun in exploring that scenario? So, I set my expectations assuming nothing goes horribly wrong, the player gets a fair amount of playing time, injuries don’t hinder his career, etc. All those things are not given of course. Now, let’s look at some possible outcomes.
First of all, there’s always the chance that he’s a low-IQ guy and tops out as a Glenn Robinson type. A good athlete whose inefficiencies don’t allow him to be more than a rotation player. I haven’t seen many red flags to think that’s a probable scenario though.
On defense, my baseline expectation long term is Jerami Grant which would be a good outcome. A good defender that can offer some rim protection, guard fours and can effectively switch onto small forwards and centers situationally.
Grant and Doumbouya have the same standing reach and the new Piston proved himself as a help-side defender in France. However, Grant seems more explosive vertically from a standstill, which makes him a better interior defender, while Doumbouya is more gifted laterally, which could make him a better perimeter defender.
If his defensive awareness proves to be good enough, Doumbouya could become an Al-Farouq Aminu type of defender. A guy that can easily guard three’s and four’s, even shut some down, and can switch two through five. The higher his awareness is, the better defender he’ll become. Paul Millsap level of a defender is not out of the question.
The other parameter that will determine his defensive ceiling is his athleticism. We know he’s gifted physically but we don’t know how he stacks up against NBA athletes. There’s a solid chance he’s in the upper echelon of athletes when you measure the combination of speed, agility, strength, size and length.
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If he actually is as athletic as Siakam, that would be a truly awesome outcome. A defensive swiss army knife that can potentially guard any player in the league. However, I’d like to point out that Siakam is an outlier and the chance of getting to that level, even for a player that has a similar physical profile, is very low. The same goes for Millsap.
On offense, his outcome mainly depends on his shooting improvement. If he doesn’t quickly become a consistent set shooter he’ll probably top out as an Aminu type on offense. A high energy guy that can kind of space the floor, set screens and generally move the ball.
If he becomes a consistent spot-up threat he could become a taller Trevor Ariza. Someone that defenders will respect and run off the 3-point line. Someone that can take it to the rim and finish efficiently.
The better the shooter he becomes the better player he’ll be. He could reach Otto Porter‘s shooting ability. A high-efficient shooter from every spot on the floor. That’s a high-end outcome. Or even Tobias Harris, a high volume shooter that can take it to the hole and even run some pick-and-roll.
Being a guy that can potentially thrive on offense without needing the ball much is what drives his potential. Transition, catch&shoot and cuts will be the main source of his scoring. That gives the team flexibility to build around him as they please. His potential game synergizes well with any kind of initiator.
Rashard Lewis also feels like a great comparison. Even if Sekou never develops as a passer he could become a great offensive player. If he does, he could be a star. Taller Paul Pierce comes to mind as a low probability ceiling outcome on offense.
Overall, Sekou Doumbouya is a great prospect that definitely has the potential to become a great player. The variance of his possible outcomes is large but early indications of his IQ and character are very promising. Given his age he has a great chance to make an impact for the Pistons.