Is ESPN right in predicting the Detroit Pistons as a 38 win team?

ESPN released its predictions on NBA win totals this season. With the Detroit Pistons sitting so low – are they making a fair enough assessment?

ESPN released its annual NBA preview, ranking the league 1-30 and making projections for each team. There was little surprise at the top but there were some interesting choices and predictions throughout. The Eastern Conference got three teams in the top ten, with Milwaukee at #2, Philadelphia at #3 and Brooklyn at #9. What wasn’t surprising was the lack of love for the Detroit Pistons, who were picked 22nd overall.

ESPN projected a 38-44 record for Detroit with a best-case scenario of 46-36. The Pistons rarely get attention from the national media, so it wasn’t shocking that most predictions have them around the same number of wins and finishing just out of the playoffs. Detlef Schrempf did pick the Pistons to win the East, but outside of Schrempf island there is little faith that Detroit is going to be anything other than mediocre.

The Nets are the real surprise here, as Kevin Durant will be rehabbing most of the season and it may take a few weeks before the Nets young core gels around superstar Kyrie Irving. Some other intriguing Eastern Conference picks are Boston at #11, Indiana at #12, Toronto at #13, Miami at #14 and Orlando at #18.

If nothing else this shows that the Eastern Conference is going to be a dog fight from 3-8 between a lot of teams with similar levels of talent.

Those who follow the Pistons’ closely will probably scoff at these rankings and blow them off as just another national news outlet looking down its nose at Detroit. On one hand this is true, the Pistons haven’t been a contender in some time and are often left out of the national discussion.

On the other hand, fans often hyper-focus on their own team, overrate their own players and make assumptions about the linear development of young players, which causes some undeserved optimism.

What ESPN and fans can agree upon is that Detroit’s ceiling is around 45 wins and anything above that would be considered a successful season. But there’s a substantial difference between 38 wins and 45, especially with the Eastern Conference expected to be tight. 38 wins and you’re out of the playoffs, 45 and you might be the 5 seed.

Fans hope for the Pistons to make a leap while ESPN and most prognosticators think Detroit is going to take a step back. Who’s right?