Is ESPN right in predicting the Detroit Pistons as a 38 win team?

Why ESPN could be right

The pessimist in me looked at ESPN’s projection and said, “They are probably right.” The consensus prediction is that the Pistons will win anywhere from 37-40 games and every now and then the so-called experts nail one.

Sometimes group think is right but even a casual fan can look at the Pistons’ roster and see the clear improvements. There can only be a couple of reasons why the Pistons are being picked to take a step back.

1. Health

Pistons’ fans know that injuries are the elephant in the training room. Griffin carried the Pistons on his back last year and it showed. By the end of the season he was cooked and though his offseason surgery was minor, there is still reason to be very concerned that he won’t be able to play 75 games again this season.

If he plays fewer games because Dwane Casey is limiting his minutes and sitting him on occasion that is probably good, but if he has nagging injuries all season and has to play at less than 100%, the Pistons are in big trouble.

Add the fact that Reggie Jackson and Rose have their injury histories and its easy to see how someone would bet against the Pistons’ health.

Casey will have to balance the need to manage minutes with the need to win in the competitive and crowded East. If you had to bet that all three of Griffin, Jackson and Rose stay healthy, would you?

Losing one or more starter would be devastating for Detroit’s depth and put them in real danger of making ESPN’s projection a reality.

2. They’re predictable

The Pistons weren’t fooling anyone by the end of last season, when their offense was stagnant, and buckets were hard to come by. Although they’ve made some nice additions, the core of the team is the same and teams know what to expect when the face the Pistons. Until Detroit proves that the shooting has improved, teams are going to pack the lane, swarm Griffin and force anyone else on Detroit to beat them.

NBA teams adapt quickly so Detroit will have to be more dynamic offensively, spread the ball and most importantly, improve their shooting. If Detroit’s offense doesn’t evolve past the one from Teen Wolf, Griffin’s usage will be too high, he’ll be more likely to get injured and ESPN will be right.

The likelihood is that Detroit will fall somewhere in between ESPN’s doom and gloom and the fans’ Rose-colored glasses (sorry) and a lot of small factors will be the difference. Did Detroit do enough to put themselves in the conversation in the East or are they destined for more mediocrity? It’s time to play basketball and find out.