Should the Pistons have signed Carmelo Anthony?

Carmelo Anthony is back in the NBA as a member of the Portland Trailblazers. Should the Detroit Pistons have signed him to get back on track?

After a year-long hiatus from NBA action, Carmelo Anthony is officially back.

The 35-year-old signed a non-guaranteed deal with the Portland Trailblazers on Thursday, where he’ll join the sweet-shooting duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

Many feared that the career of Anthony, a 10-time All-Star, had come to an abrupt end after playing in only 10 games last season as a member of the Houston Rockets, where he averaged a career-low 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 0.5 assists per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 32.8 % from three in 29.4 minutes per game.

Anthony failed to draw interest throughout the league due to his waning production and polarizing tendencies, but he will now get another shot thanks to Portland and, in large part, Lillard, who expressed his support of the move.

For many Pistons fans who have witnessed their team struggle with bench production over the past several seasons, Anthony looked like a bargain to provide proven scoring ability off the bench.

Detroit’s front office never indicated any interest in the mercurial forward.

Should the Pistons have signed Anthony? With the team starved for production at both forward spots early in the 2019-20 season, Anthony may have been able to provide the sort of scoring punch needed to right the ship in Detroit.

This, however, is wishful thinking of the highest order.

Anthony has largely lost most of what once made him one of the league’s most dynamic scorers. His ability to carry the scoring load was predicated upon having the ball in his hands, having the offense run through him, and being an efficient scoring threat from anywhere on the court.

As Anthony’s age has limited his physical capabilities, he’s lost the ability to beat defenders off the dribble. This has forced him to take fewer shots at the rim (or anywhere inside the arc) as well as forced him to rely on a higher percentage of his field goals being assisted.

From 2003-2017, 82.2% of Anthony’s field goal attempts were two-pointers, including 32.1% of those being within 0-3 feet. During his last two seasons, the number of two-point attempts dipped to 58.3%, with only 12.3% within 0-3 feet.

And while Anthony was assisted on 78.6% of his shots from 2003-2017, that number has steadily increased, reaching a whopping 90.5% last season.

While this sort of trend is expected among aging players, for Anthony it takes away what once made him such a scoring threat.

One of the staples of Anthony’s offensive game was isolation, where his athleticism and smooth shooting stroke allowed him to dissect defenders one-on-one. Even during the 2015-16 season, in the midst of his decline, he was one of the league’s elite isolation scorers (NBA.com began tracking stats by play type during this season).

Of players who played at least 60 games that season, Anthony had the second-highest frequency of isolation plays run at 43.7%, and ranked in the 80th percentile in terms of overall effectiveness as an isolation scorer.

Fast forward to last season, and the frequency had plummeted to 14.3%, while his effectiveness dropped into the 50th percentile — or average, at best.

At this point in his career, Anthony has morphed into a catch-and-shoot power forward with a league-average shooting stroke over the past two seasons (35.3%). His overall field goal percentage has dipped from 45.2% from 2003-17 to 40.4% over the past two seasons.

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On top of his declining offensive abilities, Anthony’s defense has always been mediocre.

In addition to a minus-2 Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) over the past two seasons, last year Anthony recorded a 51.0% Defensive Field Goal Percentage, the sixth-worst in the NBA.

Anthony’s defensive ability and effort has long-been criticized, and it continues to get worse with age. Add in his relative unwillingness to play a diminished role, and Anthony’s appeal decreases even more.

On top of all of this, Anthony is a full season removed from NBA action, and now a year older. His production last season should be the highest expectations set for him — but realistically, he should continue to regress.

So, should the Pistons have signed Anthony?

At this point in his career, it’s unclear whether he could actually add value to Detroit’s roster, similar to what some contended about veteran Joe Johnson. Poor defense, a declining shooting stroke, and the wrong side of 35 are all qualities the Pistons front office should avoid when filling out the roster.

Detroit has plenty of questions to answer regarding personnel. Carmelo Anthony, however, is not the answer.