Detroit Pistons: Bruce Brown should replace Derrick Rose at the end of games

Derrick Rose was the biggest name the Pistons signed this offseason. But, there’s been a major flaw to Rose’s tenure with Detroit – the fourth quarter.

Bruce Brown needs to be closing games instead of Derrick Rose at the end of Detroit Pistons games, as I briefly explored in my last story.

After another heartbreaking loss to the Hornets, I made the observation that having Rose in charge of the offense at the end of games has not been a winning strategy and despite Rose’s efficient shooting, the team seems to malfunction one way or another late in games, whether it’s Andre Drummond or Blake Griffin with key turnovers, or in the case of Rose, making ill-advised passes with no time left or straight up throwing it out of bounds.

Making the case for Rose at the end of games on this team means ignoring some pretty alarming stats about his second half performances and the value in having someone like Brown.

Entering Sunday’s game against the Spurs, here were Rose’s stats per 100 possessions in the first half against the fourth quarter.

First half: 124.7 offensive rating, 107.4 defensive rating (net 17.4), 68.6% true shooting percentage, 10.7 turnover ratio, 28.5% usage rate.
Fourth quarter: 100.6 offensive rating, 112.5 defensive rating (-11.9), 48.5% TS%, 12.9 turnover ratio, 31.6% usage rate.

Did you know that Ish Smith has a better true shooting percentage in the fourth quarter (49.5%) than Rose does? I made the case for keeping Smith this offseason not because he was as gifted a scorer as Rose, but because having Smith meant having a steady force who wasn’t going to turn the ball over and when on the floor, the Pistons won more than they lost.

In the first half of games per 100 possessions, Rose is living up to why the Pistons signed him in the offseason. It’s impressive and fun to watch to see Rose making contested mid-range shots and driving to the rim all the time, but is he as a whole making the team better?

Strangely enough, when the Pistons have won this year with Rose playing, he’s shooting 34.1% from the field, but shoots about 2.7 less shots per game than when they lose. Rose is shooting 55.5% from the field when they lose while putting up 13.7 attempts per game.

When looking at three-man lineups in the fourth quarter per 100 possessions with a minimum of 40 minutes played together, Rose is the common denominator in the four worst lineups in net rating. The worst being with Langston Galloway (-21.7), Markieff Morris (-16.4), then Andre Drummond (-12.9), and lastly Luke Kennard (-10.0).

It gets worse with three-man lineups in the fourth quarter with a minimum of 20 minutes played together, Rose is the common denominator in the worst five lineups.

However, there is one player that does seem to play in most of the good lineups in the fourth quarter, and that man is Brown.

What Brown lacks in shooting, he makes up for in defensive intensity and he doesn’t dominate the ball.

Back to Rose for a second, one of those fourth quarter four-man lineups has Rose, Drummond, Galloway, and Kennard with an offensive rating of 92.6 and a defensive rating of 120.4 (-27.8 net rating) with 27 minutes played. But, when you substitute Brown in Rose, that same lineup becomes a net positive of 2.8 net rating in the 37 minutes played.

Brown is near the top of all lineups whether it’s two-, three-, or four-man in fourth quarter net rating. He currently plays on the three-man lineup that’s second in minutes played (65) alongside Drummond and Kennard and they have a 6 net rating.

Let’s step back for a second though and remember what happened in the last game against the Hornets. The game was tied 85-85 when the fourth quarter started and at 8:08 left, Brown was substituted for Rose. The Pistons go on an 8-0 run and eventually are up by three once Rose subs back in with 3:13 left.

From then on, Rose is the only Piston to hit a shot, a three that puts them up four with 2:35 left. After that, the Pistons would blunder on offense, which wouldn’t have as big an issue had they played a single bit of defense.

Specifically the play where Rose plays the pick-and-roll so poorly that Devonte’ Graham gets off a clean look and takes the lead 108-106 with 1:43 left. The Pistons would fail to score with the exception of a Blake Griffin free throw, but it never should have come down to that. Poor individual and team defense is what allowed this to happen.

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What I don’t understand from a strategical perspective is why bring Rose in with 3:13 left if you’re trying to protect your three-point lead? Brown’s defensive rating in the fourth quarter of that game was 62.5, which is more important than how well he can shoot at that time given that the Pistons already have the lead.

Rose’s defensive rating during that fourth quarter? It’s 153.8 with a net rating of -53.8.

Yikes.

It doesn’t matter if Rose can score if that also means no one else is going to do well, and as much as offensive rating can be attributed to one guy, it’s also a reflection of how efficient the entire offense is when you’re on the floor. In eight of Rose’s 14 fourth quarters this year he’s had a negative net rating.

Until Reggie Jackson gets back, Rose should absolutely start and be the point guard early in the game. But, if you’re like me and you’re tired of what you’ve seen at the end of games, Brown should be manning the point when it matters most.