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Revisiting the 50-win prediction for the Detroit Pistons this season

By Nicolas Henkel

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 04: Dwane Casey head coach of the Detroit Pistons looks on during a timeout from the game against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on January 04, 2020 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 04: Dwane Casey head coach of the Detroit Pistons looks on during a timeout from the game against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on January 04, 2020 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /
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It was once predicted that the Detroit Pistons could win upwards of 50 games before the 2019-2020 season. Unfortunately, it was way off.

Way before the season began, I had predicted that the Detroit Pistons could win 50 games in a best case scenario type of season.

This was coming fresh off of a draft where fans felt confident after selecting Sekou Doumbouya, while also being in the middle of a free agency period that landed us Derrick Rose. Things were appearing to be on a slight incline in Detroit.

Add all of this to the fact that the Pistons had just made the playoffs, (and despite getting swept by Milwaukee) it felt like Dwane Casey was going to be able to instill a winning culture in Detroit.

The 50 win theory came down to a few key components. It mainly came down to looking at their schedule from their 41 win season and realizing that 14 of their losses came by five points or less, and that in those losses they were generally at a disadvantage in multiple categories.

Related Story. The biggest "what-ifs" for the Pistons this season. light

On average, the Pistons’ opponents were shooting 46.3 percent from the field in contrast to just 42.9 percent from Detroit.

So the theory started with thinking; well, Detroit was able to add more shooting with Rose, Tim Frazier and Tony Snell so for starters they’ll be able to bulk up their shooting percentages without question. That alone could bump them to a different tier.

Their spacing was going to be better, and so was their efficiency.

The issue with the Pistons 41 win season was their lack of durability. An Ish Smith injury early in the season almost derailed the entire year after they went 8-18 over the time he missed.

So, as long as Detroit was actually able to stay healthy, and with a clear backup point guard upgrade with Rose, this seemed entirely within the realm of possibility.

But it wasn’t.

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The Pistons constructed another roster whose success was heavily contingent on their ability to stay healthy. Naturally any team will suffer when injuries happen, but Detroit was built in a way that it can happen to so many different players at any given time.

It didn’t take long for this to show either.

Blake Griffin wasn’t even at 100 percent health when the season began, as he was still dealing with his knee issues.

Reggie Jackson started to season with back tightness, and after playing the first two games of the year, he missed the next three months.

The prediction never even had a chance. Right out of the gate Detroit showed that they weren’t going to be able to stay healthy this year. Luke Kennard, Andre Drummond, Derrick Rose, Markieff Morris, and nearly everyone else on the roster missed time due to injury at some point.

Moving down the line, if Griffin is able to return to the level he was at in 2018-2019, Kennard takes a leap, Rose stays healthy, and an assortment of other things happen then sure, the Pistons could go for 50 wins. But it isn’t likely or even fair to put that expectation on them.

Next. Piston Powered's 2020 NBA Mock Draft 1.0. dark

It was ambitious from the start to assume it was a realistic possibility for them this year, and instead they’re fighting for the number one overall pick in the draft.

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