The unfortunate reality of the Detroit Pistons next draft pick

The Detroit Pistons are aiming to make a high selection in the upcoming NBA Draft, but there’s an inevitable issue.

As it currently stands, the Detroit Pistons have the fifth best odds at landing the top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Those odds are likely set in stone, as even if a second bubble is created for non-playoff teams, it would occur after the Draft Lottery.

The Pistons actually have a higher chance of dropping down in the draft than they do with moving up. They have a 10.5 percent chance to move into the top four, but a 19.6 percent chance to drop to sixth overall and a 26.7 percent chance to drop down to seventh.

This makes sense and is closely follows the luck of the Pistons in the history of the lottery, having never moved up from their projected position in franchise history.

With this, fans can expect that in all likelihood they’ll make their selection somewhere between fifth and seventh overall.

The thing is, even if they move into the top four, there’s still a bit of a frustrating issue.

In recent years we’ve been pretty spoiled with some really solid draft classes. Ones that regardless of the order teams pick in, the talent is so substantial at the front of the class that we can determine who will be selected where.

For example, a season ago we knew that regardless of what teams picked where, Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, and RJ Barrett would be the first three selections. That’s more or less been the case for the last few seasons.

This year however, the order at which players are selected is so heavily contingent on what teams pick where. The general consensus on this upcoming class is that it’s weaker than what we’ve seen in recent years. That belief has been pretty firm.

So although we can say with pretty great certainty that LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards will most definitely go within the first three picks, we don’t know in what order and we could easily be wrong.

Ball is arguably the top prize. One that Pistons fans have either been ecstatic about for months now, slowly starting to come around, or just flat out not interested. For the most part though, people are generally excited.

Even with Ball himself, Edwards, Obi Toppin, Killian Hayes, or pretty much any player you can think of that Detroit could potentially draft, there’s going to be some major concerns.

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Take Ball for example, a player whose athleticism is unquestioned, his range is virtually limitless, his court vision and ability to locate shooter is off the charts, sounds like a pretty fun pick.

But you don’t have to watch too much film to realize that his defensive ability is tremendously lacking. If anything, it could just be an effort thing. The good news there is that if it came down to effort, that’s one hundred percent fixable.

So the issue is that no matter who you draft, you can feel good about their pros, but their cons are going to a little nerve wrecking.

Sure, this argument can be made for a majority of players in any given draft, but if you’re selecting inside of the top five, especially if you’re the Pistons right now, you’re looking for the player of the future for your franchise. Not someone who may turn out to be better as a role player.

That’s not to say that this class won’t end up having a few players that move the needle for a franchise, but you’re walking on eggshells a bit more than you would normally have to.

This is where the expertise of new General Manager Troy Weaver comes into play. His ability to scout and properly develop talent is what had Detroit interested in him for the position to begin with.

He was reluctant to admit that the Pistons will prioritize drafting a point guard, despite it being a necessity. However, rest assured that if one falls to Detroit, they’ll be taken.

If the Pistons end up with Ball, Hayes, or Haliburton as their point guard heading into next season, there’s definitely going to be some buzz and fans have all the reason in the world to be excited.

But the one year that Detroit finally embraces the rebuild, the class is full of question marks.