Detroit Pistons 2021 NBA Draft: Pass on Cade Cunningham

This isn’t recency bias because Jalen Sugg’s Final Four performance against UCLA is still a fresh memory. Cade Cunningham should not be drafted by the Detroit Pistons if they value long-term success.

Cunningham would certainly look good in the Motor City threads, and he would have one of the best-selling jerseys in recent years, but that’s not why you draft someone in the lottery. You make the selection because you’re hoping you can develop a young stud into a generational star who will eventually be a lock for the Hall of Fame.

While that’s usually more of a pipe dream than a reality, at least a lottery pick should make a few All-Star games, compete for an MVP award, and have some deep playoff runs as the center of a franchise.

Cade Cunningham is certainly capable of all of that, but history says it is less likely to happen than one may think.

Cunningham was the top-ranked recruit out of high school and chose to sign with Oklahoma State because his brother works as an assistant coach there. He could have played at Duke or UNC or even UCLA if he felt so inclined, but he decided to opt-out of playing for an NCAA blue blood and chose to play in the Big 12.

While it’s true he dominated the competition, notably with a 40-point performance against in-state rival Oklahoma, the Big 12 is not home to elite NBA prospects this year. Jalen Suggs has played phenomenal basketball against all levels of competition throughout the regular season and tournament, Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green are playing pro ball in the G-League, and Evan Mobley is one of the greatest college defenders we’ve seen in a long time.

Any of those players would be safer picks than Cunningham, and if Detroit wants to take risks, they should absolutely consider Cunningham, along with others who are unpolished but have high ceilings, like Kai Jones or James Bouknight.

Detroit Pistons draft picks: The #1 high school player rarely works out

Being an elite high school prospect–the best in the nation–is not actually the icing on the cake in favor of Cunningham. Of the last ten #1 recruits, three are no longer in the NBA, and two are bench players for Detroit of all teams: Josh Jackson and Jahil Okafor.

The best players from the #1 recruits over the last decade are Andrew Wiggins and Austin Rivers. It’s too early to make a call on RJ Barrett, James Wiseman, and Micheal Porter Jr.

Not exactly elite company.

Unsurprisingly, most of these past recruits went to basketball powerhouses like Duke and Kentucky. Only Porter and Wiseman went to second-tier basketball schools, and they both missed most of college with injury.

Cunningham may be different and may continue to improve and dominate. But he isn’t fast or strong enough to beat NBA defenses right away, he needs to be ball dominant to score at high volume.

The Detroit Pistons have a great young facilitator in Killian Hayes, young scorers in Stewart and Bey, and could add Suggs, Green, or Mobley and immediately be better because of it. Cunningham would require a revamp of the offense that I’m not sure this team needs. If he’s on the board when the Pistons’ name is called, look elsewhere for the franchise player of the future.