There is absolutely no reason why Killian Hayes should be considered a bust this early in his career with the Detroit Pistons.
It might be a sad possibility down the line but, after an injury-riddled rookie campaign, saying he was a bust is just not true. Just because he has shown poor judgment when it comes to shooting does not mean he can’t be a talent. Passing is the most important part of his position, and he is already a very exciting passer.
Let’s be honest. The 6-foot-5 Frenchman (also of Lakeland, Fla.) played on an absolutely dreadful basketball team, one of the worst in the entire league with a 20-52 record.
Hayes had very few passing options, as the Detroit Pistons were one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA. After coming back from injury following a three-month layoff, he had to adjust to the pace, physicality and size of the NBA. He did not get time to do it while healthier rookies did.
His stats for his rookie year were really not that special, but he showed tremendous potential with his passing and his unselfish play. Naturally, it was unpolished and, at times, ugly to watch, but after a full season under his belt, he has shown he can be the facilitator every team wants … but very few have.
Let’s look at Detroit Pistons’ Killian Hayes’ rookie numbers compared to some of the greater pass-first guards of recent (ish) years.
Hayes entered the league at age 19 and was (and is) rather unpolished and reckless. Ricky Rubio didn’t debut in the NBA until age 21. Rubio also played almost 10 minutes more on a very bad Timberwolves team. Yes, he racked up three more assists a night than Hayes did in his rookie campaign, but they both turned the ball over 3.2 times a game. That’s the highest turnover number Rubio has had in his entire career.
The advanced stats paint a clearer picture. Ricky Rubio had a rookie assist percentage of 37.4%, which is wickedly high for a rookie. Hayes only had a 29.7%, but that might not be entirely his fault.
The 2011-12 Timberwolves and 2020-21 Pistons were both really bad at making shots. The T-Wolves bench was one of the worst ever, Pistons draft bust Darko Milicic was playing over 15 minutes a game (Yow!). But their starters weren’t awful. Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic were efficient scorers, and Rubio got to pass to them. Hayes and Jerami Grant rarely crossed paths, and the same with Mason Plumlee.
Maybe comparing Rubio and Hayes isn’t the best experiment. After all, Ricky Rubio is an average point guard, and we’re hoping Hayes becomes a little more than that. When I think of a facilitator, I think of Rajon Rondo. He’s a pest who no one really likes, but he’s an excellent passer who’s led the league in assists three times.
Rondo vs. Hayes
Rondo’s rookie year saw him get similar minutes to Hayes, and he racked up two fewer assists. He also shot even poorer from behind the arc. He also scored fewer points.
Going back to advanced statistics, Rondo’s assist percentage was actually three points behind Hayes’, and his defense was only slightly better when it comes to blocks, steal percentage and defensive win shares.
Across the board, there is still one more point guard who has had eerily similar career numbers to Killian Hayes. Hayes has an assist percentage of 29.7, this guy had one of 29.5. Hayes has a steal percentage of 2%, this guy sat at 1.5%. Their usage percent only differs by two points, neither played an extreme amount of minutes. If you adjust for the minutes difference, their stat-line is similar across the board: seven points, four and a half assists, just over two turnovers, and a steal.
Hayes and Steve Nash?
I’m not saying Killian Hayes will be the next Steve Nash, but it’s silly to write Hayes off when NBA development takes time. Remember, Hayes did not have the opportunity of going to summer league, a real training camp or even being able to work out in the Pistons gym before the season.
Point guard is one of, if not the most, difficult positions in basketball. Hayes needs time to adjust, and being surrounded by a deadeye shooter like Saddiq Bey, a reliable forward in Olympian Jerami Grant, and a force in Cade Cunningham, next year should be his breakout season.