Detroit Pistons: Can they overachieve and fool experts?

The oddsmakers say the Detroit Pistons will finish with one of the worst records in the NBA this upcoming season. Would it be a smart bet to go with the Pistons overachieving?

The people who make a living setting up betting lines, are not very positive on how the Detroit Pistons will do. Currently, the line is 23.5 wins for the Pistons this season.

Considering Detroit won 20 games last year (and not trying that hard to win at the end) in a 72-game schedule, winning more than 23 games in 82 games would seem to be a piece of cake, particularly with the addition of Cade Cunningham. So the big question is: Why do people whose full-time job is to figure how things will go, think Detroit will do so badly.

A 23-59 season would really not be seen by most to be progress in the ‘restoring’ of the Pistons franchise. It is basically the same amount of wins as last year, on a percentage basis. Adding the No. 1 pick in the draft, and having the same record, certainly would leave a sour taste in most fans mouths.

So lets go through the reasons for, and against, Detroit beating the odds and winning more than 23 games.

3 Reasons Detroit Pistons will win less than 23 games this season:

• Extreme youth: Detroit on opening night could start: a rookie (Cade Cunningham), a second-year player who played just 25 games last year (Killian Hayes), two more second-year players (Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey) and someone in only his second year as a main option on offense (Jerami Grant). Teams with little playing experience usually do not do well.
• Eastern Conference is a bear: Are the Pistons a better team than last year? Most likely, but the other teams in the Eastern Conference have also improved, some by a a lot. Even doormats like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic picked up some good players in the draft and/or have key players returning from injury. On the schedule, there are no automatic ‘W’s’ for the Pistons.
• If it is close, Detroit always loses: The Pistons, as anyone who watched them last year knows, seemed to always lose in the final minutes of a close game. Only seven times last season did Detroit win a game that they were within five points with four minutes to go. Winning close ones is something a team learns, their youth will hurt down the stretch.

3 Reasons Detroit Pistons will win MORE than 23 games this season:

• They have to:  With Cade Cunningham, the maturation of last year rookies, the switch at center from Mason Plumlee to the better-fitting Kelly Olynyk, to win basically the same amount of games as last season just seems improbable. Were not talking about battling the Nets for the No. 1 seed, but going 28-54 is not some outlandish estimate.
• Cade Cunningham: He willed a not overly-talented Oklahoma State team to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Cunningham can do pretty much anything on the court, and you know he will do whatever it takes, to win games. You really think he will let the Pistons go 22-60?
• The Vets will help: Most teams at the bottom of the standings are teams filled almost entirely with young players. Detroit GM Troy Weaver has made a point of having some veterans on the roster. Cory Joseph and Olynyk are both 30 and each played well last year. Jerami Grant has an Olympic gold medal and his game is just getting better. With some veteran leadership, the long losing streaks most bad teams suffer, should be stopped quickly.

One would not want to bet your mortgage on the over for Detroit’s wins, because anything can happen, but, if one wanted to put some coin down, the over would seem to be the smart move.