Detroit Pistons’ lottery odds for each pick after best stretch of the season

The Detroit Pistons have won two in a row and five of their last seven games while playing their best basketball of the season.

Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey and Jerami Grant are all averaging 20 points or more during that stretch, Isaiah Stewart is having a strong finish and Marvin Bagley III has given the bench a boost since his return from injury.

This has the tank committee worried that the Pistons might be “winning too many games,” a phrase I am getting sick of hearing. This is a young team trying to build chemistry, improve and learn how to win, which is the only way this cycle of 20-win seasons is ever going to end.

The lottery odds are unlikely to change (more on that in a second), so wins are a good thing. Wins build confidence and they make the Pistons look more like an up and coming team on the verge of something rather than a tanking team with no hope but the draft, which is more attractive to potential free agents.

However, this looks like a 3-player draft and the Detroit Pistons would love to add another high-ceiling talent like Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero to their roster.

So are their lottery odds at risk?

UPDATED: 3/8/2022

Detroit Pistons’ lottery odds: Wins and the 2022 NBA Draft

The Pistons currently have the third-worst record in the NBA, so they have the best possible odds to land the number one pick, along with the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic.

The only advantage to being the worst team is that you are guaranteed a top-5 pick, while the second-worst can fall to 6th and the third-worst to 7th, which would be the worst-case scenario for the Pistons right now.

The Pistons are 2.5 games behind OKC for the fourth-worst record and 3.5 behind the Pacers for the fifth-worst, so Detroit would have to win at a high rate to surpass either of them.

They are playing the best of any of those teams, so it could happen, but right now the Pistons’ lottery odds aren’t in imminent danger.

Here are their odds for each pick:

#1:  14%

#2: 13.4%

#3: 12.7%

#4: 12%

#5: 14.8%

#6: 26%

#7: 7%

The way the Houston Rockets are playing, they are almost a lock for the worst record, so the teams to keep an eye on are Orlando, Oklahoma City and the Indiana Pacers.

Pistons’ schedule

I wrote about the remaining strength of schedule for the teams the Detroit Pistons are near for lottery position but there is another factor to consider.

Most of the remaining tough games the Pistons have left are against teams in the Eastern Conference who are less ingrained in their seeds than the top teams in the West, where each tier has some separation between it.

Teams in the West like the Suns might be more inclined to rest guys down the stretch than the teams in the East, who are all bunched up at the top and will be fighting for position. The Pistons have games with Miami, Philly, Milwaukee and the Bulls, who will all need every win down the stretch.

OKC and Orlando both have more games vs. the West, which might lead to some garbage time victories down the stretch.

In other words, the Detroit Pistons are very likely to end with one of the three worst records, so sit back and enjoy the best stretch of the season. The lottery odds will take care of themselves and right now the Pistons aren’t at risk of losing their position.