With just over a week left in the 2021-22 season, the Detroit Pistons find themselves in a familiar position.
They have won just 20 games, equalling their total from each of the last two seasons, and have recently won just two of their last 10 games, though all of them have been close.
With the Rockets winning two in a row, the Pistons now find themselves in a 3-way tie with Houston and Orlando for the worst record in the league.
This gives them a 52.1 percent chance to stay in the top-4 of the 2022 NBA Draft, with a 14 percent chance at the number one pick overall.
Though these numbers wouldn’t change if the Pistons had the second-worst or even third-worst record, they would be guaranteed a top-5 pick if they stayed in the worst position, while the third-worst can fall to 7th overall.
The Pistons, Rockets and Magic all have seven games remaining on their schedules, so who has the advantage in the race to the bottom?
Detroit Pistons’ lottery odds: The final week
Here are Detroit’s seven remaining games:
- @Brooklyn
- vs. 76ers
- @OKC
- @Indiana
- vs. Mavericks
- vs. Bucks
- @Philadelphia
They have four left on the road and five of their seven games will be against teams that are headed to to the play-in tournament or playoffs.
Houston also has seven games remaining:
- vs. Spurs
- vs. Kings
- vs. Kings
- vs. Timberwolves
- @Brooklyn
- @Toronto
- vs. Hawks
The Rockets have five remaining home games and four of their last seven will be against teams headed to the play-in or playoffs.
Orlando’s final seven games look like this:
- @Cleveland
- @Washington
- vs. Raptors
- vs. Knicks
- vs. Cavaliers
- @Charlotte
- vs. Miami
The Magic have just three games left on the road and five of their remaining seven games will be against teams who will at least be in the play-in tournament.
The Rockets clearly have the easiest schedule of the three and could win their way out of the bottom of the NBA during their four-game home stand.
The Pistons and Magic have similar schedules with Orlando’s being slightly tougher.
We can talk about player development all day, but in the end, the only real payoff for a lousy season is a top draft pick, and this year’s race to the bottom might come down to the final game.