How big will Marvin Bagley’s bag be?

The Detroit Pistons should have a lot of salary cap space to use on free agents or on trades this off-season. How much money they will have to spend might be determined by how much they pay Marvin Bagley III.

In terms of its current players, there is not much drama involving contracts with the Detroit Pistons. Some have team or player options for next season, but only minor players like Jamorko PIckett and Rodney McGruder are true free agents.

But there is one negotiation that general manager Troy Weaver does need to handle with care: Marvin Bagley III.

Most Pistons fans know the story.  Bagley was drafted ahead of Luka Doncic and Trey Young in 2018 by the Sacramento Kings but never became a star player like they did. The Kings soured on Bagley, and traded him in February for a couple of second-rounders to Detroit.

In 18 games with the Pistons, Bagley averaged 14.6 points and 6.8 rebounds. Weaver even said at the end of the season that Bagley gave the team an athletic big man that they had needed.

One of the reason’s the Kings gave up a former No. 2 overall pick for very little is Bagley’s contract situation.

Bear with me here (and yes, I used the word ‘bear’ correctly), as the details get a little complicated.

What is the deal with Marvin Bagley III current deal?

Bagley signed a four-year, $35 million contract after being drafted by Sacramento. Bagley’s deal expired as the end of the season. Because he did not start many games over those years, Detroit would have to offer just a $7.3 million tender to make Bagley a restricted free agent, which means the Pistons would have the right to match any offer and keep him.

But, because he was drafted so high, Bagley has a $28.3 million salary cap hold, which gobbles up a huge portion of the Pistons cap space. Unless Detroit renounces his rights, which makes him an unrestricted free agent, the hold sticks until Bagley signs a new deal.

Since every indication is that Detroit wants Bagley back (and he seems to want to stay as well, after three and a half years in Sacramento, the Pistons are like paradise), Weaver needs to negotiate a new contract for Bagley to shed the choking cap hold before the start of the free agency period.

So how big will the bag that Marvin Bagley ends up with?

Marlowe Alter of the Free Press projects Bagley netting $10 million a year, while our own Aaron Kellerstrass think it will be more like Frank Jackson’s deal, two-years for $10 million.

There probably will be no big bidding war for Bagley because, well, he is Marvin Bagley.  His reputation around the league has taken a beating the past few years. There was not exactly a line trying to get Bagley at the trade deadline.

The amount that would be fair is tough to figure out, because Detroit could get him for a cheap $7.3 million but then Bagley could be an unrestricted free agent the following season. If he keeps looking as good as he has in his brief time with the Pistons, his price could go way up.

As a benchmark, Detroit signed Kelly Olynyk, a successful veteran big man, for three-years, $39 million last off-season. Bagley is not thought of as highly as Olynyk, but he is also just 24 and has skills that neither Olynyk nor Isaiah Stewart have.

Since Weaver does not seem to go for really long-term deals, he has not signed anyone longer than three years since he became GM, a $33 million for three years contract is what Bagley could end up with, and maybe the third year only partially guaranteed (much like Olynyk’s contract).

It could also be a back-loaded deal, where Bagley gets most of his money in the last couple of years, to make sure he does not eat too much into Detroit’s salary cap this summer.

How well the negotiations go with Bagley will be a major factor in how active the Pistons can be in the off-season.