The Detroit Pistons have a chance to get the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft for the second year in a row. However, could they possibly be better off getting the second, third or even fourth pick, and taking a lot of pressure off the team and the draftee?
There is good and bad being selected first in the NBA Draft. The biggest good, obviously, is you make more money than any other rookie. The second-best thing is, you have the satisfaction that out of everyone eligible to be selected, your name got called right off the bat.
One of the bad parts, is that a No. 1 pick is forever branded with how he got in the league. It is sort of like being named Miss America. No matter what they accomplish, those women are always referred to as ‘Former Miss America’. Has there ever been a broadcast where the fact Cade Cunningham ‘he was the top pick in the draft’ has not come up?
In terms of pressure being put on to succeed, no rookie has it like the No. 1. People fretted in Detroit about Darko Milic in 2004 being a bust after being selected No. 2, but the rest of the country really did not follow it.
Like in many sports, there is a big difference between No. 1 and No. 2, and even No. 3.
For additional insight, here is Jerry Seinfeld:
Of course, just because you are not selected first, does not mean you can’t be better than the player who went No. 1. Michael Jordan waited two spots until he was selected by the Bulls at No. 3. The Celtics took Jayson Tatum at No. 3 ,while the Lakers went with Lonzo Ball at No. 2 and the 76ers traded up with Boston to flip-flop slots and get Markelle Fultz at No. 1 (Note: The people who did that drafting were eventually fired).
The 2022 NBA Draft is a bit different than 2021. Last year, Cade Cunningham was the consensus No. 1 pick. Despite finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, he certainly played like a No. 1, and he handled the pressure of the situation well.
Others (Ben SImmons), may not feel so comfortable being the No. 1 pick, and dealing with the expectations that comes with it. Some (Ben Simmons) even claim to have difficulties dealing with the game.
This year’s draft does not hold a definitive No. 1 player. Most mock drafts have either Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren, Auburn forward Jabari Smith and Duke forward Paolo Banchero going 1-2-3, but in various orders.
Would Detroit Pistons be better off drafting No. 2 or No. 3?
Since there is not much between the top three prospects, would the Pistons be better off getting the second or third draft pick when the NBA Draft Lottery is conducted on May 17?
The player that Detroit would then select does not have the pressure of being a No. 1 to deal with then, but they will still have a player with No. 1 overall pick ability.
It also relieves the team of having possibly impossible expectations. Getting the No. 1 pick two years in a row, will put the spotlight on the Pistons this upcoming season. A team hoping to make the Play-in tournament suddenly will be looked upon as a playoffs-or-bust.
In recent history, two teams have gotten the first pick two times in a row: Cleveland in 2013-14 (Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins) (and three No. 1’s in four years) and Philadelphia in 2016-17 (Simmons and Markelle Fultz).
The Cavaliers traded those two No. 1s to Minnesota to get Kevin Love and help LeBron James win a title, but if King James did not return, the Cavaliers would have done nothing with those players. The 76ers? Well, one of the No.1s refuses to shoot the basketball while the other either forgot how, or physically can not due to a physical problem.
So getting No.1 picks back-to-back does not guarantee any banners getting put up. It is also a bit easier to trade when you are second or third. Fans are not quite as excited, so if a team offers general manager Troy Weaver a nice package, he probably will not get the blowback ir he was trading away No. 1, even though the player would be fairly similar to No. 1 in ability..
Of course, picking No. 2 or No. 3 makes Weaver’s job a lot easier. Simply see out of those three who is left, and grab him. He will have two studs to pick from at No. 2 and, if Detroit is third, the pick is really a no-brainer.
The Pistons have a 14% chance, the highest a team can have, of landing the No. 1 pick again. They also could, theoretically, end up as far back as seventh (that would be bad, very bad). But, if Detroit ends up just missing out on No. 1, that is probably not a catastrophic development, it might even be a positive.