Detroit Pistons: Best free agents according to advanced stats

This past season, the Detroit Pistons only won 23 games. This was only slightly better than the year before where they won 20 games. Many expect the Pistons to have a repeat performance in 2022-23, however all the cards are in place to at least sneak into the play-in tournament.

The Detroit Pistons have the 5th pick in the draft and a trade asset in Jerami Grant that could bring back more assets or a promising player. Detroit also has the cap space to land an impact free agent.

The free-agent market has some big names like Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine and Deandre Ayton, but the Pistons will have to dig deeper than the name to find a good fit.

That’s where Win Shares (WS) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) come into play. While these statistics aren’t perfect, they can give us an idea of where the Detroit Pistons need to improve and how to do it.

Detroit Pistons free agency: Win Shares and VORP

Win shares are basically a way of figuring out how much a player contributes to his teams success. High win shares are good, while obviously low win shares are the opposite of good. There are a few exceptions to this rule though. Some players who have played a long time in the league could have a fairly high win share total even if they haven’t contributed to winning in several years.  This is where we have to look at VORP. Value over replacement shows how valuable a player is to a team versus when he’s subbed out of the game. Players who win MVP usually have higher numbers in this category.

Detroit Pistons: Picking free agents using advanced stats

There are 198 available free agents. Here are 15 free agents and their WS and VORP for their careers and this season. It’s easy to see which guys the Detroit Pistons should be pursuing and which ones they should avoid.

• Bradley Beal: Career: 48.8 WS VORP: 21.0, This past season: 1.4 WS VORP: 1.0 (Only 40 games)
• Miles Bridges: Career: 16.0 WS VORP: 3.8, This past year: WS: 7.2 VORP: 2.5

• Deandre Ayton: Career: 24.6 WS VORP: 5.7, This past season: 7.5 WS VORP: 2.1

• Jusuf Nurkic: Career: WS: 23.3 VORP: 6.1, This past season: WS: 3.6 VORP: 0.9

• T.J. Warren: Career: WS: 19.6 VORP: 4.2, This past season: WS: 0.1 (only 4 games played)

• Derrick Jones Jr.: Career: WS: 13.5 VORP: 1.7, This season: 2.2 WS VORP: 0.2

• Donte DiVencenzo: Career: WS: 9.2 VORP: 2.2, This season: WS: 0.8 VORP: 0.2

• Facundo Campazzo: Career: 5.1 WS VORP: 0.9, This past season: 2.0 WS VORP: 0.4

• Isaiah Roby: Career: WS: 4.1 VORP: 0.1, This season: WS: 2.9 VORP: 0.6

• Mitchell Robinson: Career: WS: 24.8 VORP: 6.0, This past season: 8.5 WS VORP: 2.0

• Bismack Biyombo: Career: WS: 24.4 VORP: -2.2, This season: 1.8 WS VORP: 0.1 (36 games)

• Zach Lavine: Career: WS: 23.7 9.5 VORP, This season: WS: 5.8 VORP: 2.6

• Gary Harris: Career: WS: 20.8 VORP: 2.1, This season: WS: 2.2 VORP: -0.2

• Tyus Jones: Career: WS: 19.3 VORP: 5.1, This past season: WS: 5.1 VORP: 1.4

• Jalen Smith: Career: WS: 2.9 VORP: 0.2, This past year: WS: 1.7

In the above list, people left out were older players, players who don’t seem to have interest either in leaving or interest in joining a rebuilding team, as well as players with lower WS totals, most people with RFA contracts or players on contending teams. However LaVine, Biyombo, Jones, and Ayton have expressed interest in the open market at some point, so despite them being apart of good teams they are on the list.

There are some interesting and surprising numbers that might paint a different picture than the public narratives. Zach LaVine, widely considering to be the top free agent, put up lower win shares than Ayton and Bridges while having a similar VORP. The advanced stats love Mitchell Robinson, who put up the highest win shares on the list and had a VORP just below LaVine’s.

For comparison, the Detroit Pistons were led by Saddiq Bey with four win shares and a VORP of 1.2 (tied with Jerami Grant).

Obviously this is not the only way teams evaluate talent but advanced stats are another tool that makes it easier to compare players and see which guys are really making contributions.