The Jalen Duren saga has officially entered September with no deal in sight.
The longer this lingers, the more likely it is that Duren will accept the qualifying offer for next season, which means the Pistons would be at risk of losing him for nothing as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
That isn’t likely to happen, as it would be a huge risk for Duren, one we’ve seen backfire on players recently. Guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Jonathan Kuminga would probably tell Duren to take the money.
But there is actually a worse-case scenario than Duren taking the QO, and it’s one the Pistons will face as soon as Duren signs a massive contract, if and when that ever happens.
The Pistons don’t want to be the next Nuggets
There is always a risk of losing a young player who hasn’t yet hit their peak, but there is even more risk in signing that guy if he doesn’t pan out as expected.
The Pistons are likely to end up paying Duren around $40 million a year, which means they are in for real now, as that’s a number that won’t be easy to trade if Duren doesn’t improve.
The worst-case scenario is not Duren leaving for nothing, it’s Duren signing for a massive number and then not improving upon weaknesses that made him a liability in the playoffs.
Signing the wrong guy is the biggest sin in the tax apron era, and we’ve seen it burn teams recently.
The Nuggets finally developed a good two-way player in Peyton Watson but had to trade him away because they overpaid Christian Braun.
The Pistons have a similar situation brewing, as signing Duren for too much now may cost them players down the road.
The Pistons are well aware of this, which is why they are trying to keep Duren’s number as low as possible and why we could actually see a scenario where Duren takes drastic measures, which would include the qualifying offer or working out a much shorter deal.
Of course, Duren can make all of this moot by improving next season and proving he’s more than just a guy who can dunk in the regular season.
That scenario is as likely, but it’s not a given that Duren gets better and if the Pistons are paying him $40 million a year, they’d be paying him for improvement that hasn’t yet happened.
The standoff will continue until the Pistons either decide Duren is worth that risk or are willing to potentially let him walk rather than take it.
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