Fans hope the Detroit Pistons’ magical season last year was the sign of sustained success to come, but not everyone is optimistic.
Tim Bontemps of ESPN picked Detroit as one of his five teams that will not reach their projected wins forecast, which had them improving moderately to 47 wins.
While I do think some predictions have been a tad optimistic, I don’t think you need rose colored glasses to see the Pistons winning three more games than they won last season.
But here is part of what Bontemps had to offer as to why the Pistons would come up short:
“Duncan Robinson replaced Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris LeVert replaced Malik Beasley and the now healthy Jaden Ivey should take Dennis Schroder's rotation spot after he departed for the Sacramento Kings in free agency.”
He also talked about bigger roles for young players and a weakened Eastern Conference that should keep them in the playoff hunt even if they don’t improve as expected.
I think he has an argument, as we often pencil in linear progress as if it is a given and we know that is not the case, whether we are talking about a young player or a young team as a whole.
However, the reasoning behind his less-than-optimistic take could also be used to support the idea that the Pistons will be better.
Detroit Pistons: Quietly building a better roster
Like I said, you can’t take linear progress as a given, but players like Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey should be better next season. It’s not guaranteed, but we’ve seen enough to be hopeful of that outcome.
Given that these are the players the team is built around, their progress is most important, and if they make it, the Pistons should be better.
Bontemps talks about all of the changes the Pistons made as it they are negative, but I’d take the opposite approach, as they have arguably upgraded from all of the players that they lost.
Duncan Robinson is better than Tim Hardaway Jr. He’s more versatile offensively and a better shooter, so the Pistons upgraded there. Caris LeVert is not the shooter Malik Beasley is, but he’s a better all-around player who can create off the bounce and actually plays defense. The Pistons may have downgraded volume 3-point shooting, but LeVert is an upgrade everywhere else.
There’s also the possibility that Beasley will be back anyway, so this point may be moot.
Jaden Ivey is an upgrade from Dennis Schroder, who shot the ball poorly with the Pistons even though he did a decent job of steadying the second unit. Ivey could be a 20+ppg scorer next season, offers far more athleticism and is a better outside shooter.
Bontemps also mentioned (several times) how weak the East is going to be and used it as justification for other teams improving, so why doesn’t that apply to Detroit?
These predictions are ultimately meaningless, but I do think people are sleeping on the moves Detroit made, which coupled with internal development, should propel them in the standings.