If you use logic and math, then the Detroit Pistons will likely be paying Jalen Duren somewhere in the range of $125 million over five seasons on his next contract.
The extensions for Duren and Jaden Ivey have been the subject of much debate, the kind that always surrounds second contracts for players who have not yet established themselves as stars.
For guys like Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams, the answer was easy: You give them max contracts as soon as possible and walk away feeling good about it, as these players have already shown star qualities, and in the case of Williams, won a title.
For players like Jabari Smith Jr., a big deal is far more of a risk, as he has not shown as much in his brief career. It was a risk the Rockets were willing to take, giving Smith Jr. a five year/$122 million contract that Ivey and Duren’s agents will use as a benchmark for their clients.
Second contracts always carry some amount of risk, as the players are still very young and most of them have not reached their peak, but fans often get caught up in the wrong numbers.
Salaries will keep going up as long as revenue does, so what may look like a huge deal and possible overpay for Jalen Duren is actually right in line with inflation.
Jalen Duren and the rising NBA salary cap
John Hollinger of The Athletic (subscription) recently broke down the reasons so many players from the 2022 draft class are still waiting for extensions.
The first is that so few teams have cap space and financial flexibility that teams no longer feel the need to get a deal done a year early when they aren’t likely to lose the player in restricted free agency anyway.
The league has also made a big change to the CBA in that now all incentives count against the dreaded tax aprons, even if the player doesn’t reach them and never gets that money.
Incentives used to be a way for teams to hedge their bets according to Hollinger, but that tool has been taken away, making it even riskier to sign long-term deals with young players, as there is no “out” clause if they don’t reach their incentives.
But the salary cap continues to rise, and according to Hollinger, has gone up 32 percent since 2021, which would bump a $100 million salary closer to $125-130 million by today’s standards.
It’s hard to fathom, but $25 million is now minimum wage for an NBA starter and if you can find a good one cheaper than that, it’s a huge advantage. So, the Pistons will try to talk Duren’s camp down to a more team-friendly number, while Duren’s people will just point to the simple math of NBA economics.
They’ll also point to several other contracts around the league and say that their guy is better. This may not be resolved soon and could end in a stare down, but eventually Duren is going to get his money, and fans might get sticker shock when they see how much it is.