The Detroit Pistons didn’t sign Jalen Duren to a rookie extension last offseason, a move they now almost certainly regret.
Duren has been great this season and may be on his way to a max contract, according to insider Jake Fischer (subscription), who thinks an annual salary for Duren will likely be at least $40 million a season.
Duren is averaging career highs in just about everything and is looking more and more like the second star who will flank Cade Cunningham. The two teammates and friends have some of the best pick-and-roll chemistry in the league and currently lead the NBA in successful lobs.
The Pistons are also dominant when Duren scores 20+ points in a game, as they are undefeated this season in the 11 games in which it has happened.
The Pistons had their chance to lock up Duren last offseason, as it was reported he was looking for $30 million a season, which would have been a bargain compared to what they will likely have to shell out next offseason.
Duren will be a restricted free agent, so the Pistons will not only have to outbid themselves, but any other team that wants to make an offer to Jalen Duren. Some rival could put in a big contract offer just to make the Pistons pay more for their guy, as they have the right to match any deal.
You can call this a blunder by the Pistons, and I am sure they wish they could do it over, but in the end, it was still the right call and potentially saved them from a much costlier mistake.
Detroit Pistons: Avoiding bad contracts
Trajan Langdon has made it clear that he will try to match contracts to contributions on the court, not base them on nebulous “upside” or “hope.” That was the case with Duren, who had not yet shown the consistent defense and more nuanced offensive game that he has this season.
If the Pistons had signed Duren to a 5 year/$150 million deal, which is what he reportedly wanted, and he had not made these types of leaps this season, then that’s an expensive contract for a rebounder.
Given his improvement, he’s going to get paid more, but that’s a tax the Pistons were willing to pay to be sure they were right before committing. We’ve seen teams blow these second contracts again and again by paying guys on potential that they have not yet reached.
The league is littered with contracts teams wish they could purge, as players like Patrick Williams got big deals before they had ever proven anything. It’s far more destructive to pay a bad player than it is to pay a good one. The Pistons are going to have to pony up for Duren, but at least they know he’s worth it.
It’s easy to make these kinds of calls in hindsight, but the Pistons weren’t wrong to wait. It’s going to cost them more, but they can go into Duren’s next deal with far more certainty and confidence.