The Detroit Pistons have until October 20th to extend Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, and if they are going to choose one of them, Duren may represent the least risky bet.
That’s according to Zach Lowe on a recent episode of The Zach Lowe Show, who cautiously predicted that the Pistons would extend Duren but not Ivey. He admitted that the most likely outcome was that neither player is extended and I agree with that.
But if the Pistons are able to reach an agreement with one of the players, the more likely candidate is Duren, who has already set a high floor for himself at age 21 as a guy who is a dominant rebounder and lob threat. He took his game to another level in the playoffs, and if we can expect improvement upon that, then Duren is a safe bet.
He certainly has work to do but has been putting it in this summer (with Sheed even) and was noticeably leaner at the Pistons’ media day, where he said he wants to play his entire career in Detroit.
The Pistons have seen more of Duren, and given his age, there is reasonable expectation that he’ll improve key areas of his game, most notably his defense. The same can’t be said of Ivey, who missed most of last season, so if makes sense that the Pistons would be more comfortable committing to Duren.
The question is what that will look like and whether the two sides can find a number everyone can live with.
How much is too much for Jalen Duren?
I’m certain there is a contract number the Pistons would be happy with, but whether it’s anywhere near what Duren wants is the big question.
We can look to players like PJ Washington or Jakob Poeltl at the low end, but Duren’s camp is probably going to point to Nic Claxton’s $100 million as a starting point.
With the cap continuing to go up, betting $100 million on five years of Jalen Duren seems reasonable, as that’s going to be the minimum wage for an NBA starting center. If the Pistons think Cae Cunningham, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren are a trio worth building around, then locking Duren in now makes sense.
Duren will undoubtedly want more than that, but at this point, the Pistons have all of the leverage and aren’t at risk of losing him. If Duren plays well, they’ll commit with more confidence, even if it’s to a bigger number. If he doesn’t make the necessary improvements, we’re back to this same question next offseason.
I’ve been back and forth on this issue a thousand times this offseason, but tend to land on the side of patience, but if the Pistons can extend Duren at a number they are happy with, I think they will. I suggested a front-loaded contract with team options, which could be a solution both sides coudl live with.
If not, it’s onto the season and we’ll re-visit this at the trade deadline and next offseason.