The Detroit Pistons have seemingly had all of the leverage in their contract negotiations with Jalen Duren, but that doesn’t mean they are going to get a favorable outcome.
Duren is now less than two weeks away from the deadline to accept the qualifying offer, which would pay him $9.6 million but give him a no-trade clause and make him an unrestricted free agent next offseason.
Duren should ask Tari Eason how that could turn out, but I digress.
There are several ways this could be resolved, including Duren just caving and taking the fair offer the Pistons have put on the table, which would be the only way this works out for the Pistons.
Some think the reported $190 million they have offered is already too much, but Detroit would call it a win if they could get Duren signed to that deal before trading camp.
None of the other outcomes are great for Detroit.
The other Jalen Duren outcomes do not favor the Pistons
Aside from him just signing, which he’d be a fool not to do, there are several other ways this could go.
Jalen Duren signs the qualifying offer
Duren could accept the QO or at least make it clear that he plans to, in which case the Pistons can do a couple of things.
They could either trade him immediately, which would be my preference. I would like Duren back, but not on a paltry one-year deal that makes him angry and unengaged.
The Pistons could also let him enter the season hoping to trade him before the deadline, a deal that Duren would have to approve. In this scenario, the Pistons go into the season with an unhappy center who is already shopping for houses in another city.
Neither of these outcomes are ideal for Detroit.
The Pistons arrange a sign-and-trade
If Detroit thought this was a possibility, then I hope they have been working on it already, as it’s pretty late in the offseason to be trading your starting center and reconfiguring your roster.
It also seems nearly impossible that the Pistons would get anything of equal value, as everyone knows the situation, and Detroit would suddenly lose all of the leverage they had.
If the reported Kings deal is representative of what the Pistons could get, then it’s not great for Detroit. There was a report saying there were ”3 teams” other than Sacramento who were interested in Duren, but they were not named, and that sounds a whole lot like something an agent trying to gain leverage would say.
Even if true, I’m not buying a team is going to give up a fair deal for Duren, so if they go the sign-and-trade route at this point, Detroit isn’t likely to come out ahead.
The Pistons could postpone the decision
I wrote about this yesterday, as the Pistons do have the power to push back the deadline to sign the QO to March 1st.
This really wouldn’t accomplish anything but to buy Detroit time to either trade Duren or come to an agreement. It's also a big risk to Duren, who would re-enter restricted free agency again next offseason and be unable to play until then.
The Pistons could give in and overpay Duren
I am in the camp who thinks $38 million per year is the absolute max Detroit should pay Duren. I like Duren, and would like to keep him, but he’s not a superstar and he shouldn’t be paid like one.
Even 38 might be too high, so if the Pistons cave and give Duren a deal worth $200 million or more, they will have soundly lost this negotiation.
There’s only one way this works out for Detroit, and that’s if Duren signs a reasonable deal before October 1st, and anything else will feel like a loss for the Pistons.
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