After 23 games of the 2024-25 season, the Detroit Pistons are in 11th position in the Eastern Conference, just a half game behind the Pacers for the final play-in spot.
I’m sure most fans would have taken this outcome before the season started, and the Pistons have looked better at times, but two brutal blowouts and a tough upcoming schedule have sent the most pessimistic parts of the fanbase to the draft odds.
The Pistons own a top-13 protected pick in the 2025 Draft, and we are nearing the stage where fans start asking the depressing question of whether the Pistons would be better off keeping it in a draft class that is deep and has more potential star power than the last.
We’ll know more after the next 10 games, and if the Pistons log some unexpected wins, the play-in should still be in reach, but given the competition, that is no easy task.
The Pistons aren’t going to outright tank under any circumstances, but they might be more inclined to sell off veterans like Tim Hardaway Jr. (not a big loss and would open more time for Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II, so do it) and Malik Beasley, which would be a way to wave the white flag on the season without saying it directly.
If the season were to end today, the Pistons would keep their pick and still have a shot at the top-4 of the draft. We’re not there yet, but see me after the next 10 games.
Detroit Pistons lottery odds right now
The Pistons are currently in 8th position in the lottery standings, so would keep their 2025 Draft pick if things ended up this way. Here are their odds for each pick:
#1: 6%
#2: 6.2%
#3: 6.7%
#4: 7.2%
#8: 34.5%
#9: 32%
10: 6.8%
#11: .4%
As you can see, the Pistons would still have an outside shot at the #1 pick at six percent and a 27 percent chance of jumping into the top-4, which isn’t terrible.
Overwhelming odds would be for the 8th or 9th pick though, so all the Pistons have accomplished so far this season is slightly worse lottery odds. At least there is literally no chance they can get the 5th pick right now, which is something.
I am not in any way suggesting the Pistons should tank, I am so sick of that garbage and it hasn’t worked anyway. Atlanta got the number one pick from an even worse position last year, so it’s possible the Pistons will get some Karmic payback if they try to compete the entire season, which they absolutely should.
But you do have to wonder how this will look in another month, as it’s possible we’ll see teams like Philadelphia and New Orleans start to win if they can ever get healthy.
Only Washington and Utah seem to be truly tanking, though Charlotte may soon join them. We might see Toronto, Chicago and Brooklyn fall off if they decide to have fire sales, so there are still a million permutations where the Pistons move up or down in the standings.
It’s grim to be thinking about this already, but the Pistons are teetering between the play-in and the lottery and the next few weeks will likely decide which path they take.