The Detroit Pistons enjoy a five-game cushion for the final guaranteed playoff spot with just 15 games left to play.
Barring a major collapse, the Pistons should avoid the play-in and make the playoffs outright, an outcome that was unthinkable at this time last season.
Stranger (and worse) things have happened, so the Pistons can’t get too far ahead of themselves and have to take care of business in these remaining games to ensure they don’t slip in the standings.
As of this minute, Detroit is tied for the 5th seed (losing the tiebreaker to the Pacers) and just one game behind the Bucks for the 4th. The Pacers and Bucks play tonight, so we could see the Pistons leap all the way up to a three-way tie for 4th place by the end of the day.
This is a season that could come down to the final game to decide the playoff seeding, but Detroit will lose the tiebreaker to either the Bucks or Pacers.
Regardless of how that shakes out, the Pistons are likely to be playing the Knicks, Pacers or Bucks in the first round. All of these teams are good and represent unique challenges for the Pistons, but when you look at one of Detroit’s major strengths, there is one opponent they clearly want to avoid.
Detroit Pistons: Points in the paint
The Pistons have made their living in the paint this season on both ends, as they are 6th in the NBA in points in the paint per game and 5th in the league in points in the paint allowed.
Scoring down low and stopping other teams from doing the same has been a huge part of their success, as the Pistons are still a mediocre shooting team from long range even after the additions of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Tobias Harris.
This strength would be an advantage against the Pacers or Knicks, as both teams are bad at defending the paint. The Pacers are 28th in the NBA in points in the paint allowed, giving up a staggering 51.9 per game.
The Knicks aren’t much better at 23rd in the league, allowing 49.8 points in the paint per game themselves.
Then you have the Bucks, who are 6th in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game, giving up just 46.8, right behind the Pistons, so Milwaukee is clearly the best team of the three when it comes to stopping what Detroit likes to do.
Milwaukee is just 28th in points in the paint scored per game, so they don’t play into the Pistons’ strengths on either end either, as Detroit is better at defending the paint than the 3-point line, especially against teams that have stretch fives like Brook Lopez.
There’s also the fact that the Pistons haven’t beaten the Bucks since 2022, and have been thoroughly dominated by Milwaukee for the entirety of the Giannis era. Until the Pistons can start to beat the Bucks consistently, they will still have that big brother mental edge and won’t be scared to face Detroit.
The Pistons have to get to the playoffs first, and given this will be the first time in seven years, will be happy just to be in the mix, but if they want a chance at first-round success, avoiding the Bucks is crucial.