Expectations have changed early for the Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are 0-3 in the 2024-25 season. A 4th quarter collapse versus the Pacers and a turnover-riddled loss against the Cavaliers before a hard-fourt loss to Boston. While it is disappointing to start the season off with a trio of losses, there have been plenty of good things to take from these games, which has changed expectations for the rest of the season.

The Pistons will shoot the ball better

It's been all or nothing for the Pistons from 3-point range so far this season but there are already signs that they are markedly better than they have been in recent years.

Simone Fontecchio and Malik Beasley are real weapons off the bench and Tim Hardaway Jr. has been a steadying hand in the starting lineup.

But Tobias Harris has given them little and the Pistons' starting five in general hasn't taken or made many 3-point shots.

Even with some of their key players struggling so far, the Pistons are 13th in the league in FG percentage and 18th in 3-point percentage, both huge leaps from last season when they were 22nd and 25th, respectively.

Cade Cunningham is an All-Star, Jaden Ivey makes the leap

The biggest beneficiaries of the theoretically improved spacing will be Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. Cade put up solid numbers of 22.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 7.9 assists a game, with the poor spacing of last year. Add in just a few more, even slightly credible shooters, and his scoring efficiency and playmaking should take a massive leap. The shooting (both from midrange and 3) should increase in frequency and effectiveness, and his ability to control his pace and get defenders in jail will be even more potent with more room to operate. I expect Cade to be around 25/9/5, and be heavily considered for an All-Star spot. 

Three games in, and Cade is averaging 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists, while shooting 47.8 percent from the floor. He has to clean up the turnovers, but he's been their go-to guy and is either scoring or assisting on most of their points.

Jaden Ivey had a tough 2023-24 season. But towards the end he showed a level of confidence in his shot that was very encouraging (37.7% on 6.3 attempts in his last 10 games). Those promising signs into the preseason, with Ivey making 9 of his 17 attempts, many of them off the dribble. His athleticism and burst will always be his calling card in these early years of his career, but being able to punish defenders for going under screens, with consistency, would be agame-changer for Ivey’s career ceiling. I don’t know how much higher his 3P% will go this year, but I am expecting improved shooting, as well as him taking advantage of the aforementioned improved spacing.

Last year he averaged 15.4 points, 3.8 assists, and 3.4 rebounds on 43/34/75 splits. I expect to see him close to 18/5/5 on around 47/37/80 splits this season.

The Pistons aren't the worst team in the NBA

At the end of the day, Detroit Basketball needs a win. It needs a tangible sign of progress. The Cade Cunningham era has been marked by levels of losing that put the dark days of the mid-2010s to shame. All I ask, and expect, is that the Pistons are not the worst team in the league. This is not the worst collection of talent, this is not the worst assembled roster in the NBA. They shouldn’t be in that conversation. 

Three games into the season, I see the signs. I see the potential for a team that will be competitive, and will get some wins against quality opponents. 

They were up for the majority of the season opener against Indiana, before collapsing in the 4th quarter. They shot 41% from 3 on the road against a Cleveland team that is stout defensively. If they took better care of the ball, that game could have gone differently as well. 

They hung with the best team in the NBA against Boston, but again, late game execution let them down.

If Cade Cunningham is really at the level I think he is, he (assuming a full healthy season) should be able to take this roster to somewhere around 30 wins. Now some may say this isn’t the season to shoot for mediocrity, with a potentially generational prospect like Cooper Flagg coming into the league next season.

But you need to start developing winning habits, and the only way to do that is to start winning. You cannot keep “building for the future” indefinitely. It is no guarantee they get the #1 pick, even if they have the worst record in the league, which was the case just last draft. It is also no guarantee that Cooper Flagg or any 2025 prospect would be that franchise savior. 

You have your coach. You have your team. You got some shooting. Now go get some wins.