Timing is everything when it comes to NBA contracts and the timing couldn’t be worse for Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren in their extension talks with the Detroit Pistons.
As a player, you want to hit free agency when your value is high, but also when there are teams with money to offer, something there were precious few of this offseason, when we’ve seen restricted free agents linger in limbo as teams are increasingly cautious with their money.
Hit free agency at the right time, and you can cash in, which is what happened in the 2015-16 season when the salary cap shot up unexpectedly and teams suddenly had more money at their disposal.
It led to some of the most ridiculous contracts in modern NBA history, guys like Meyers Leonard and Robin Lopez (no offense to them, they were good role players) getting close to $60 million. It was a good time to be a mediocre NBA free agent or player looking to sign a fat extension.
That isn’t the case for Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, whose extension cases are different but face the same challenges when it comes to getting max money.
Jaden Ivey
After watching the Cam Thomas saga play out, you have to wonder how much of a market there is for scoring two-guards who aren’t great creators or defenders. Jaden Ivey would currently fall into that category, so the Pistons can play hardball in Ivey’s free agency if the market is tepid.
Ivey is coming off an injury, which is unfortunate timing for him, as the Pistons still want to see more before committing to big years and dollars.
I don’t expect Ivey will get an extension before the start of next season and that the scenario has a chance of playing out like we’ve seen with Josh Giddey. Jonathan Kuminga and Cam Thomas.
There will be more teams projected to have cap space next offseason, which could make things different for Ivey, especially if he has a big season, but right now, Ivey has little leverage and will have to prove himself to get his money.
Prior to the new tax rules, this deal probably would have been done already, as teams were handing out those second contracts without a second thought, but that’s no longer the case, especially with teams using restricted free agency as a weapon in their negotiations.
Jalen Duren
I’d be less surprised if Duren got an extension before the season because we already have a baseline for what he is and it’s pretty good. He’s also 21 years old, so a safe investment given that he’s already a top 15 center who averages a double double.
But he faces the same issue as Ivey, as there are arguments about how much teams should invest in centers who aren’t floor spacers or elite rim protectors. Duren isn’t either at this stage in his career and there is little chance he ever becomes a guy who spreads the floor with shooting.
He could get there as a rim protector, which is what the Pistons would be betting on along with his improved passing and ability to take it to the rim off the bounce. He doesn’t have to be a great shooter, but he does have to be a great defender, which he has not proven yet.
Has he proven enough to get an early extension? We'll know soon enough, as the Pistons have until the end of October to cut a deal or Duren will join Ivey in restricted free agency. If that happens, expect next offseason to be far more dramatic than this one.