The biggest question lingering over the Detroit Pistons the last two seasons is how Jaden Ivey ultimately fits on the roster, and unfortunately, the Pistons aren’t much closer to answering it than they were last season.
The choice seems simple: Given Ivey will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season, the Pistons have to trade him at the deadline or be prepared to re-sign him at the end of the season.
But those two choices aren’t simple at all, especially when we still haven’t even seen Ivey in the starting lineup.
We’ve been saying this for two years now, but the Pistons still need more information, as this decision is more complicated than it may seem.
Will Jaden Ivey have trade value?
Many fans expect the Detroit Pistons to trade Jaden Ivey at the deadline as part of a package for an upgrade, and that may very well happen, but right now, it would be hard to find a team that wants him.
After missing more than half of last season and a big chunk of this one, some of the luster has worn off Ivey as a prospect. He pretty much had a lost season with Monty Williams as well, so the Pistons aren’t the only ones who have no idea what Ivey can be.
At this point, it’s hard to see a team trade a star or near-star player with Ivey as the headliner coming back, as you just don’t know what you are getting.
That could change by February if Ivey starts playing well and logging big minutes, but right now his trade value is nil.
What if Jaden Ivey doesn’t pop this season? What if he does?
It’s a fine line here, as the Pistons would just assume keep Ivey if he shows he is what they are missing, so this would make their decision easier. Ivey pops, looks great next to Cade Cunningham, the Pistons win the title (LET’S GOOOO!), Ivey gets paid and the Pistons dynasty begins. Happy ending for everyone!
But what if Ivey doesn’t pop this season? What if he never quite looks right and doesn’t emerge as that second scoring option the Pistons lack?
The Pistons would then be stuck in free-agent purgatory wondering how much they should offer Ivey or whether to offer him anything at all. There isn’t much risk the Pistons lose Ivey for nothing, but if he’s not a major factor in the season, they’d have to think twice about bringing him back unless it was on a smoking team-friendly deal.
Another scenario is that Ivey plays great, helps the Pistons make a deep playoff run, and then he’s a hot commodity at the end of the season that they might have to overpay as a restricted free agent to keep.
Then the dreaded “sign and trade” comes into play, which rarely works for the team doing the signing, as they have no leverage.
There is a lot at play here that could be simplified by Ivey blowing up and the Pistons being ecstatic to keep him, but anything other than that, and there are plenty of permutations, so the Ivey saga is not close to over for Detroit.