One of the toughest decisions the Detroit Pistons have to make this summer is whether to offer Jalen Duren an extension and how much to give him if they do.
It’s a tough call, as Duren is only 21, so it’s still difficult to predict what his ultimate ceiling could be. He’s at least a nightly double-double who is going to grab rebounds and catch lobs, but how much is that worth in the modern NBA where the center position is being re-defined on a nightly basis?
Duren still isn’t a great defender (yet) and there are real questions about how much a one-dimensional center is worth, especially when Duren isn’t elite on the offensive end either. Ask the Kings, who are now potentially shopping Domantas Sabonis and would find few takers given his salary even though he’s an elite offensive player.
The Pistons can’t fall into the trap of overpaying their own guys, a lesson the Nuggets are learning the hard way under the new tax apron rules that make it extremely punitive to overpay the wrong guy.
But what would an overpay be in this case?
Jalen Duren contract extension: The Detroit Pistons have to draw a line in the sand
Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report predicted that the Pistons would eventually give Duren a 4 year/$112 million extension that comes out to $28 million a season.
That would clearly be paying for potential, as Duren hasn’t yet shown that he’s worth that kind of investment, not when there are better centers making less. With guys like Myles Turner ($19 million) and Ivica Zubac making less than $20 million a season, it’s hard to justify paying Duren more and could be potentially devastating to their team building.
Duren will likely point to Nic Claxton’s $100 million deal as a starting point.
It’s difficult to have more than two big-money players under the current tax rules, so the Pistons would essentially be committing to Duren as their second-best player. With Cade Cunninham already on a max deal, do you think Duren is good enough to be the second-best player on a title contender?
Paying him $28 million a year wouldn’t be catastrophic while many of their guys are still on rookie deals, but after that, things could get ugly for the Pistons when guys like Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey and Ron Holland II are also looking to get paid.
But if the Pistons aren’t going to offer the full five years, then they’ll have to pay a higher annual premium, so it’s fair to ask if it would be better to do so rather than commit to the maximum allowable years.
We might see the team take that strategy even further and offer Duren an even shorter deal with a higher annual salary and a team option at the end of it, but I have a feeling Duren’s agent is going to play hardball here.
This is the trickiest issue the Pistons have to deal with, as you can’t overpay the wrong guy under this CBA and expect to build a deep roster, so they have to be sure about Duren before making him a big offer.
The opposite is also true, as Duren could end up blossoming into a star, or at least a Zubac-level producer, in which case that could look like a bargain, but it’s a huge risk for the Pistons, who would be betting big on potential.