The Detroit Pistons are locked in a staring contest with Jalen Duren that has become the dominant storyline of their offseason.
The standsill is expected to end in a new deal for Duren in Detroit, but the longer this lingers the bigger chance it has to be a problem. Both sides are essentially out of options at this point, so it would benefit both of them to get this deal finished.
In the past, this contract would have been rubber stamped as soon as Duren was eligible, but teams are quickly learning that style won't play under the new CBA, which is far more punitive when teams cross into the tax aprons.
Jalen Duren is representative of a larger trend in the league, which is that teams are finally getting smarter.
Teams aren't smarter, but they are being forced to be
Actually, teams aren't smart at all, which is why the league had to put these rules in to protect them from themselves. The NBA was trying to prevent the types of devastating contracts that can ruin a franchise for years.
But the new tax rules have teeth that aren't just financial, so teams are being forced into finally being smarter about second contracts with players like Duren, who are good, have potential to be better, but aren't yet worthy of max deals.
Signing the wrong deal can be devastating to team building, so we are seeing teams being a bit smarter, which is why Duren is still waiting in limbo.
You can have your max money on a bad team
All things being equal, I am sure there is some team out there that would be willing to pay Duren a max if they were able to do it. But the truth is that team likely won't be good, at least not for very long.
Players are going to have to choose on some level between their money and the possibility of team success, as good and great teams are not going to continue to overpay players. Look at Boston, who just gave away a player far better than Duren simply because his max contact was untenable with sustainable team building.
I am sure teams like the Kings will continue to doll out big deals to mediocre stars like Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine, but for teams that are serious about being good, these are the exact deals they have to avoid, and that would include Duren.
I don't blame players for going after their money, but there doesn't seem there is much left for Duren to gain by holding out. I also don't blame teams for trying to be more cautious about second contracts, especially the Pistons, who don't want to stall their championship efforts with a bad contract.
Could Jalen Duren walk?
The only way Duren can regain leverage in this negotiation is by threatening to take the qualifying offer, which would give him a no-trade clause and make him an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
The Pistons certainly don't want this, as it would leave them open to losing Duren for nothing. Duren would also stand to lose a ton of money next season and even more if he were to decline or get injured.
It's hard to see a world in which this happens, so at some point this deal will get done, but if Duren wants to play hardball, he could end up being the first casualty of the apron era for the Pistons.
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