One looming question has finally been answered as Jalen Duren's dominant regular season has officially landed him on an All-NBA team, making him eligible for a supermax contract extension this offseason.
The only problem, though, is that the Detroit Pistons have no plans to give the big man supermax money, and the only realistic outcome that keeps the former first-round pick in the Motor City is if he's willing to meet the team in the middle in contract negotiations.
And for fans wondering what that happy medium in contract negotiations may be, salary cap guru Keith Smith of Spotrac may have just laid out a deal that could work for both sides this offseason.
Keith Smith predicts the Jalen Duren payday that will keep him in Detroit
Obviously, after his impressive regular season was countered with a poor postseason, it's hard to imagine the Pistons are willing to ink the big man to the five-year, $287 million contract he's eligible to receive this offseason.
At the same time, Detroit will almost certainly do what it can to keep their starting center in the Motor City, even after his abysmal playoff showing.
There's no doubt that the Pistons likely have no plans to sign the Memphis product to a long-term deal that will secure him the $57.4 million average annual salary he's eligible for, but they'll be more than willing to negotiate a deal that's not just team-friendly but allows the 22-year-old to realize his value to the team.
For those asking, I think this contract will ultimately come in somewhere around 5/$185 at a $37M AAV.
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) May 25, 2026
For reference, in 2026-27: $37M would rank 47th overall in the NBA and 7th among NBA centers. Interesting, it would place Duren just ahead of Ruby Gobert on both lists. https://t.co/PfoQPYOujM
Smith's five-year, $185 million prediction would be the perfect sweet spot for the big man to not only net the payday he's seeking, but also for Detroit to land a long-term commitment to a key piece of their core for years to come, while saving some financial flexibility for additional wiggle room in the future.
And while it may not be the supermax payday Duren hoped for after his regular-season performance helped lead the Pistons to the No. 1 seed in the East, he'll also have to realize that he doesn't have leverage in this situation.
Pistons have more control in contract negotiations than Duren
Duren's poor postseason play ultimately landed him in this position, and the harsh reality is that he can't thank anybody but himself for that.
On top of that, the Pistons also have the luxury of the center being a restricted free agent so even if he's able to discuss a long-term deal with any other team, Detroit will ultimately have the final decision on whether they want to match any potential deal or not.
There's no doubt Duren could find a max offer from an external team, but no team is in position to pay the big man more than Detroit could if they decided to and with the Pistons having the leverage in negotiations, the best possible outcome is if Duren is willing to meed Detroit in the middle and help the team build a title contender for redemption next season.
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