Anyone who has ever gambled and lost knows that there is always a point in the night when you could have gotten up and walked away a winner. It feels like we are at that exact moment with Jalen Duren, who has a chance to walk away right now with generational wealth, but may keep betting anyway.
I still don’t think Duren will follow through on his threat to take the qualifying offer, as his agent, as bad as he has been in this negotiation, surely has a calculator at his disposal, so knows that even if Duren were to get a full max next offseason, he’d still only break even after losing a boatload next year.
If it’s only about the money, then these are not smart money moves, as Duren would be trading guaranteed riches for a slim shot at slightly more, or more likely, far less. You have to look no further than former teammate Dennis Schroder to see how that can backfire.
If things went south next season, or even worse, he got injured, he’d be looking at a much smaller payday next summer, which is not a smart risk to take given that the gap in what the Pistons are offering and what he wants isn’t very big.
In fact, if the Pistons did offer up to $38 million a season, as has been reported, then they are offering far more than anyone else would or could.
If Duren walks away from $180-190 million and then has a bad season for whatever reason, he’ll be the new face of fumbling the bag, as we know that once that money disappears, it rarely returns.
But it’s not just money that Duren is fumbling with this inexplicable holdout.
Jalen Duren is putting a negative spotlight on himself
A lot has been made about how Duren’s holdout may affect his relationship with his teammates, and my take is that it won’t. His teammates know the business and how things work, so I don’t think they are going to hold it against their teammate and friend.
That said, Duren has already missed two mini camps, one hosted by Cade Cunningham, so I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say it would have been better if Duren were there. As soon as he signs, no one will remember this, so I don’t think it will damage things with the other Pistons, but this also isn't ideal.
The fans are a different story.
I can’t offer more than anecdotal evidence about how fans feel about this, but the ones I am interacting with daily are getting angrier with each update. Granted, these are social media people who wake up angry, so I don’t see them as avatars for every Pistons fan, but I do think fans have had enough of this story.
Sentiment turns quickly in these negotiations. At first, I think fans were cheering for Duren to get his money and wanted the team to just pay him. Now, I am not so sure.
Duren has put a negative public relations spotlight on himself that is going to rear its head as soon as he has a bad game, especially if he enters the season on a qualifying offer.
Duren has put a lot of undo pressure on himself for no reason, as the Pistons’ offer is fair and more than anyone else is going to give him. He’s also in the perfect basketball situation for him to thrive and get another monster contract after this one.
If he signs soon, this will all be forgotten quickly, but if not, Duren may end up being a cautionary tale about quitting while you are ahead.
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